Neither competing Great Power wants a significant escalation in their ongoing proxy war in Ukraine, let alone one caused by Russia accidentally harming Biden during his trip had it targeted any military-related infrastructure that he was either using or was around without knowing that he was there. The US didn’t want to take any chances, ergo why it informed Russia “some hours” ahead of time to ensure that nothing of the sort transpired.
Former Russian President and incumbent Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote on Telegram that US President Joe Biden had “previously received security guarantees” from his country ahead of the American leader’s trip to Kiev on Monday. This is an accurate reflection of reality as confirmed by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who disclosed that “We [notified the Russians] some hours before [Biden’s] departure for deconfliction purposes.”
There’s nothing strange about Russia giving Biden “security guarantees” during his trip to Kiev no matter what some bloggers have claimed according to excerpts of their rants cited by CNN that same day. Neither competing Great Power wants a significant escalation in their ongoing proxy war in Ukraine, let alone one caused by Russia accidentally harming Biden during his trip had it targeted any military-related infrastructure that he was either using or was around without knowing that he was there.
The US didn’t want to take any chances, ergo why it informed Russia “some hours” ahead of time to ensure that nothing of the sort transpired. This indisputable fact that was disclosed by its National Security Advisor also inadvertently discredits the Mainstream Media’s (MSM) spin that Biden’s visit to Kiev was “brave”, the narrative of which is being artificially manufactured to contribute to their current “copium” binge for covering up disadvantageous developments in that conflict as of late.
It would have been “brave”, but of course needlessly risky and thus extremely reckless, had Biden traveled there without anyone on his side informing Russia in advance. In that scenario, he truly could have been in harm’s way exactly as the MSM falsely claims that he was. Instead, Moscow gave him “security guarantees” just like Medvedev claimed, hence why the trip ultimately went through. Had the Kremlin declined to do so, then it’s unclear whether or not it would have still happened.
This naturally prompts the question of what that Eurasian Great Power’s calculations were in doing so, which can’t be known for sure and thus can only be speculated upon. On the one hand, it represents yet another so-called “goodwill gesture” aimed at discrediting the MSM narrative that Russia is some kind of “bloodthirsty beast” that “revels in killing” or whatever. By letting Biden pass to and from Kiev unharmed, it showed everyone that it doesn’t want to provoke World War III unlike the MSM claims.
On the other hand, however, it could also have been that the Russian leadership assessed that Biden’s handlers would have put him on that train regardless of whether or not Moscow gave him “security guarantees”. In that scenario, they’d be the ones risking a World War III scenario by irresponsibly creating the conditions whereby the American leader could accidentally be harmed, in which case they’d then say that Russia did so purposely after being informed of the details of Biden’s travel arrangements.
Nothing of tangible significance was achieved by his visit to Kiev, which was pure “copium” for the Western masses at the moment when the military-strategic dynamics of this conflict are obviously trending towards Russia’s favor. Having realized that ahead of time, the Kremlin probably calculated that there isn’t any harm in making yet another “goodwill gesture” since the alternative could have been to risk the unthinkable had Biden’s handlers put him in harm’s way anyhow.
There’s a precedent for this policy too as evidenced by former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett revealing that President Vladimir Putin promised not to assassinate his Ukrainian counterpart. Taking Zelensky out would have made Russia look even worse in the court of public opinion and wouldn’t have made much of a difference in terms of the reshaping the conflict’s military-strategic dynamics since he, just like Biden, is mostly just a figurehead for “legitimizing” his permanent bureaucracy’s decisions.
Neither the American nor Ukrainian leader can be regarded as truly independent actors in this conflict since each are just pawns of their powerful military, intelligence, and diplomatic structures that formulate the policies that are then publicly approved through those figures. The ongoing proxy war isn’t a battle between their leaders at the personal level, but between each side’s respective permanent bureaucracies that were detailed in the preceding sentence.
That being the case, assassinating symbolic figures like their heads of state or accidentally harming them could actually be counterproductive in the sense of forcing those powerful structures that are behind them into escalating the conflict in order to “save face” due to understandable public pressure. As it presently stands, the only one that wants to recklessly escalate matters is the Ukrainian leadership, which explains its multiple chemical and nuclear provocations throughout the course of the past year.
By contrast, Russia and the US aren’t interested in killing or harming their counterpart’s leader since they both know fully well that it could easily lead to World War III, which neither of their governments wants due to obvious self-preservation interests that are conspicuously lacking when it comes to Kiev. After all, it was the Ukrainian leadership that falsely claimed that their accidental bombing of Poland last November was supposedly done by Russia, which the US to its credit publicly contradicted.
That event proved that the American leadership doesn’t want World War III, which aligns with Russia’s interests as well, thus explaining why neither wants to harm the other’s head of state whether purposely or accidentally. This convergence of strategic calculations puts the security guarantees that Russia provided to Biden prior to his visit to Kiev in their appropriate context and therefore makes it more understandable to the general public why the Kremlin let this trip go through unimpeded.
Source: the author’s blog