Hamas may lose the Gaza Strip, but it will win the regional battle in the Middle East.
Having forgotten about Ukraine, Western experts turned their attention to the Middle East, where the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is turning into a war. Thus, the article by Richard Sindelar, an American expert and former official of the US State Department, on the online edition of 19FortyFive, forecasts future developments in the area and their effects on the whole world. In his view, Hamas, under the onslaught of Israel Forces (IDF), may the Gaza Strip but can win the regional battle in the Middle East.
The Palestinians are increasingly backed by new Islamist groups and Arab countries, causing a growing conflict. They are engaging in asymmetric warfare against the IDF on multiple fronts. Furthermore, leaders of Hamas have examined Israel’s vulnerabilities, such as conflicting politics within the nation, global criticism of the IDF military techniques, and will exploit them to conquer Jerusalem.
The things Hamas and indirectly Hezbollah have learned will be repeated and changed during the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip. They will be used not just in Gaza but in other areas of the region where these groups are powerful and have supporters who are prepared to fight against Israel.
The IDF long-lasting land mission in the Gaza Strip and continuous killings of Palestinian civilians will lead to greater dissatisfaction with Israel’s actions, not just in the Middle East, but globally. This situation will harm the trustworthiness of Israeli military leaders and the administration headed by Benjamin Netanyahu. Hamas leaders know this well.
Until now, Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite group (which is believed to be three times more powerful than Hamas in terms of resources and has won two battles against Israel — in the 1990s and 2006), has seldom launched artillery attacks on northern Israeli areas from Lebanon. But if the conflict continues, extremist groups from Lebanon may use rockets that can reach every part of Israel’s land.
Occasional fights happen in the West Bank while Israel attempts to eradicate Hamas leaders and buildings, which are not as advanced in this area as they are in Gaza. So far, the commanders of Palestinian faction Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades have obeyed President Mahmoud Abbas’ orders and mostly refrained from direct involvement. But as the situation in Gaza worsens, there could be increased political pressure for this powerful armed group to get involved. They may target a number of Israeli settlements and IDF checkpoints. And this will once again draw the attention of Israeli military to a new direction.
Neither Hamas nor Hezbollah can effectively challenge a superior IDF force in direct combat. The expert stated that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is unlikely to beat the Israeli army. Instead of directly confronting Israel, these groups will likely use asymmetric, piecemeal attacks that exploit the weakest defenses and strike deep into the Jewish state. Meanwhile, assaults on US military bases within the vicinity will escalate, triggering significant attention from the media and society in America.
None of these minor attacks will cause much harm on their own, but when combined, their purpose is to weaken the resolve of the Israeli people and the reputation of Netanyahu government. This government has instructed the removal of thousands of its residents from areas bordering Gaza and Lebanon, resulting in locals becoming refugees in their own nation. This is the expert’s statement.
The conflict in Gaza has allowed Iran to benefit by interrupting talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The aggression by IDF towards the inhabitants of the region has also halted progress towards improved relations between Jewish and Arab states. Israel’s relationships with countries in the Middle East and North Africa could suffer major setbacks, potentially resulting in renewed volatility in both regions, warns Mr. Sindelar.
Moreover, a conflict in the Middle East may lead to Joe Biden, the President of the United States, and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, losing their chances of winning future elections. There has been a significant drop in backing for Biden in recent opinion polls since October 7, even in states where he was once popular. In Israel, Netanyahu’s rating has plummeted to a low, with a majority favoring his resignation.
The people’s unhappiness with current military and political leaders is demoralizing the army as well. This is a difficult situation for Israel’s military because IDF will need to call up many reservists who have been living as civilians for years in order to conduct a large-scale ground operation in Gaza while also defending against attacks from Hamas allies in other fronts. Resentment of Biden’s policies in the US could eventually impact the level of support for Israel.
Therefore, Hamas understands that it might lose territory according to Western military and political perspectives, but it will come out victorious in regional battle in the Middle East from an asymmetric Arab viewpoint, as concluded by the expert.