Putin’s Visit To Arabian Peninsula. What Next?

Today, Russia is a pariah country in the world. At least this is how the Western world or, to be more precise, the Atlantic and Anglo-Saxon world, portrays the results of its foreign policy. However, besides the West, there is another world: East, South. They did not impose any sanctions against Russia. Just the other way round, they boosted trade with the Russian Federation. For example, during the past year, Russia has significantly increased oil deliveries to India. Let’s say that was done at a disproportionately huge discount. Let’s say that the deliveries have practically disappeared during the last month and a half due to the stinginess of the Indian authorities and Russia’s attempt to switch to yuans in trades since the rupee is not a freely convertible currency.

Negotiations reached a deadlock at a certain stage. Part of transactions was made in dirhams; however, the Indian government did not welcome such a trend. It is critically important for it to oppose itself to China, instill its point of view and push for paying rupees for Russian oil despite the fact that Russia is unable to withdraw or convert rupees into another currency. Russia, in turn, simply has nothing to buy from India in such quantities. This created a significant foreign trade deficit.

India is very well versed at political games. It is not for nothing that during the Cold War it was Jawaharlal Nehru who led the Nonaligned Movement. Traditions are of great importance in that country. And that tradition has survived to this day. The oil story was no exception. As oil exports from Russia declined, India began to ramp up its exports from Arab countries. Apparently, that was one of the topics discussed during Vladimir Putin’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It is extremely important for Russia to redirect energy resources exports that have declined due to Europe’s refusal to cooperate with Russia to the East. Such games on the part of India absolutely do not suit Putin and the Russian budget. Russia will definitely not leave it at that and will do something about it.

Despite the fact that Russia is a pariah country, it is welcomed with open arms by world leaders and its position on key issues is taken into account. For Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, shaping a common policy to be pursued in the Middle East and creating a single oil market offering rules that suit the largest oil producers are key issues in cooperation with Russia.

putin-arrived-in-abu-dhabi
An aerial aerobatic team in the UAE performed a flyby as Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Abu Dhabi

This is also an attempt to curb India’s efforts to manipulate market prices. After all, the market is single. Especially considering the fact that after buying crude Russian oil at a significant discount with its price at certain points in time reaching $35 per barrel, India processed it at its refineries and sold not just oil but oil products to the West. Revenues generated by such a business were just mega-huge. But why should a third country profit at the expense of Russia and its situation? The situation in the world has changed, the discount has decreased and the requirement to keep the price below $60 looks ridiculous against the backdrop of existing disagreements. If you make a concession on one thing then they’ll just come for another. Don’t agree to pay market prices? Look for other suppliers.

Hence, Vladimir Putin paid a visit to the Arabian Peninsula to negotiate. Currency earnings are very important for Russia. It has no need for India’s games at all and the way he was received by these countries attests to the fact that he has succeeded in reaching agreement. The question is what agreement is it? That information, however, is not for mere mortals. But at least we can think about it, no one can forbid us to do this. In the context of cooperation with such powerful Arab countries, several scenarios for the development of events are possible. First of all, when communicating with Arabs, it is always necessary to take the Arabian mindset into account. You cannot lie and must show respect. The dialog must be conducted on an equal footing. The West made this mistake at one time. Russia is unlikely to do the same. Its school of orientalists is too strong for that. In addition, its relations with eastern countries are traditionally at a high level. They will cut a deal in one way or another.

Secondly, Vladimir Putin’s visit signaled to the whole world that the country’s leaders are ready to deal with Russia and are willing to talk. Thirdly, the suggestion is that Arabs want to take revenge on the West for a long-term neglect. For disrespect. And Arabs are known to have good memory. Remember when Biden visited Saudi Arabia to persuade Riyadh not to cut oil output? Did he succeed in that? No. Apparently, that was just the beginning of the turnaround. In turn, Putin’s visit is its natural continuation.

putin-visit-to-uaeThe Russian President’s visit outlined a desire to create a bloc of Arabian countries that are willing to cooperate with the pariah country and strive to diversify cooperation in all possible areas. But, the most important thing about that trip is that it was demonstrated to the whole world – not just the East or the West but also Africa, Latin America and Oceania – that the policy of sanctions is counterproductive and colonial thinking, no matter how disguised it is and called by Western “partners”, is alive and well.

The world is on the verge of tectonic changes. Ukraine was the first stage; it is coming to an end. President Zelensky visited the summit hosted by Argentina. What is the chance that he is looking for a place away from Putin and his ubiquitous KGB agents so that he won’t have his head broken with an ice-axe like Trotsky in his day? Well, that is pretty likely. After all, Argentina is located on the other side of the world. It is also traditionally a great place for fugitive Nazis. Israel is the second stage. Is it all going to end with Israel? Hardly. Regardless of the outcome, it seems to the author that the United States will try to stir up a third conflict. Taiwan seems to be the most obvious option. However, can they stand up to China? Are they strong enough for that? Especially considering the fact that the United States has slightly depleted its arsenal by sharing, as it turned out, a very significant portion of it with Ukraine. Most likely, it will choose something less significant. However, we will find out about that post factum.

Reposts are welcomed with the reference to ORIENTAL REVIEW.
Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Leave a Reply