Lebanon This Summer: The Upcoming Hezbollah-Israel War Will End With One Of The Two Scenarios

Lebanon-Israel-border-escalation

It is no secret that the current escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli borders is not temporary and has been gradually rising to the level of full-scale confrontation between the two heavily armed powers, Hezbollah and Israel. The losses on both sides have been growing, new types of weapons are being introduced to the battle, and new geographic areas are being targeted in both countries. Thus, the level of aggression, hatred and chaos has reached a no-return point, which probably means, we are days apart from a total war between Lebanon and Israel.

The war between Israel and Hezbollah will definitely be far different from the Hamas-Israel war. First, the power, size and readiness of Hezbollah is much greater than Hamas’s. Second, Hezbollah enjoys the actual presence on a far larger geography than the one Hamas enjoys, this is not to mention the connection between Syrian and Lebanese geographies, unlike the surrounded Gaza strip. In other words, when the war starts Hezbollah will have unlimited support in arms and logistics from Syria and Iran, and it won’t be embargoed as the case for Hamas. Thus, it would be much harder for Israel to secure a “quick victory” or to exercise a total land invasion as it has done in Gaza for the past 10 months.

Moreover, Hezbollah is currently not only present in Lebanon -as in the 2006 war- but also in Syria, which tells, Israel has to expect attacks and missile launches from two fronts rather than one. This is not to mention the upgraded sea forces that Hizbollah developed in the past few years, which also tells that the long coast of Israel might not be fully secure in the case of a total war. In other words, the frontiers of battle will be more numerous and longer than the ones in the current Gaza war. In addition to all that, Hezbollah has acquired highly-developed drones imported from Iran, which add a new type of challenge for the Israeli army.

Just few days back, Hezbollah publicly announced the success of a unique aerial military operation implemented by a small drone which looks like a bird. The drone flew for hours and hours deep inside the Israeli geography, reaching the heart of city of Haifa. The drone captured videos and images of many sensitive commercial naval and defensive Israeli sites. The true surprise was that the drone went back to Lebanon without being detected or shot down by the “Iron Dome”, Israel’s most advanced surface-to-air defensive system. This development tells one thing, Hezbollah is able to reach far deeper areas in Israel, it could not reach back in the 2006 war, which also tells that the total war with Lebanon is not going to be short, quick or easy-to-settle.

On the other hand, Israel’s defense capabilities are very famous to be described as the country exports the latest Western technologies in the global defense arena. This is not to mention the Israeli vivid capabilities in the precise detection and bombing tactics. This all tells that it would not be easy for Hezbollah to effectively invade the Israeli geography or to reach areas far from the borders. The same, it would be very costly and very hard for the Israeli land forces to penetrate through the Hezbollah defensive lines, mainly fortified with “hundreds of kilometers” of underground tunnels, prepared with very sophisticated Guerrilla war tactics.

Moreover, both the countries enjoy superior support from their global supporters, whether it is the US, Iran, the UK, North Korea or Syria, which tells that a total war between Lebanon and Israel will push the main supporters to be even more present and supportive – so their ally does not lose the war. In other words, such a war does not seem to be possible-to-win for any of the sides and it won’t end with a military solution but rather with negotiations. Most likely, the war is going to intensify on the borders and last for months -if not years- as both the powers, Israel and Hezbollah have been preparing for such a war for years and both have developed advanced defensive mechanisms against the other.

As a result, the total war between Hezbollah and Israel will end in one of the two scenarios. It is either that they will fight on all fronts for months and months till one side slightly gets the upper hand over the other side, which would prepare a suitable ground for direct or indirect negotiations to end the war. The other possible scenarios is if Israel -after months of fighting- manages to occupy parts of the Lebanese southern geography, a serious development that would probably push Syria and Iran to directly engage in the fight, in order to stop the Israeli advancement towards strategic districts bordering the Syrian lands. This means that the war has already become regional and much out of control.

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