Following on the first part in which I had widely discussed the political and economic forecasts for the Syrian conflict, in this part, I’ll be discussing the other aspects of forecast for the same period of time, (2025-2026).
The humanitarian crisis in Syria is expected to remain severe in 2025-2026. Millions of Syrians will continue to be internally displaced or living as refugees in neighboring countries; Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. Access to basic necessities such as food, clean water, and healthcare will remain limited, particularly in conflict-affected areas. International humanitarian organizations will play a crucial role in providing aid in the upcoming few years.
The return of refugees will be slow and fraught with challenges, including political developments, lack of infrastructure, and legal issues regarding property and documentation. Moreover, the younger generation of refugees, having grown up amidst conflict and unequipped camps, will face immense challenges in terms of education, adaptation, employment, and professional opportunities for the future.
The “Public Instability” has been an issue as well, since lately, some areas under the government control has been witnessing public protests – against corruption, economic deterioration and lack of basic services such as electricity and fuel. These protests could add more complexity and uncertainty to the Syrian future and could trigger newer problems such as further economic hardships, mistrust among different parties, and violence.
The Captagon dilemma (Drugs Trafficking) has also been spreading inside of Syria and spilling over to the neighboring countries, the dilemma is expected to last till 2026 and maybe longer, but would be further contained as Syrians promised to effectively fight drug producers and traffickers. Meanwhile, the Jordanian army has been imposing stricter control all over the northern borders with Syria, where the majority of Captagon pills are being smuggled into Jordan, then to Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries.
The Kurdish autonomous region in Syria -controlled by YPG- is expected to gain more resources in the upcoming two years, since the US has been expanding its military presence in the area, this is not to mention the developing economic cooperation between the West in general and the Syrian Kurds. Despite reports of a possible Turkish-Syrian plan to reconquer the area and return the Kurds back to the “Syrian Home”, these plans remain unrealistic with the current US presence, giving the Kurds and their troops an “armored immunity” against such plans.
Moreover, the external tensions going on in Gaza and Southern Lebanon might also be a game-changer for Syria in the upcoming months, and maybe years. Any total confrontation between Israel and Lebanon high pull Syria as well – on the long run. If a war breaks out between the Syrians and Israelis, it would further weaken the Syrian economy and pressure the state’s budget. Such a scenario would not be much possible since the Russians are present in Syria, but still, a total Israeli-Lebanese war would be like no other and Syria might be dragged into it – in a way or another.
In short, the near future of Syria could not be described as very dark, but could not be bright as well. The war has deeply impacted the country over the past 12 years, politically, socially, economically and morally. In 2025-2026, few recoveries and improvements will be sensed in Syria, however the major part of recovery will require no less than 8 to 10 years. Yes, Syria today is much better than it was during the years of war, but it is still far from being fully stable, promising and prosperous.
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