The fact that many of those who spoke out against the current government voted “from the couch“ also played a role, i.e. they spoke about their position to sociological companies, but did not go to the polling stations, preferring to express their indignation in front of the TV. From a historical point of view, abstentionism played into the hands of the Venezuelan authorities, who traditionally received the votes of their loyal electorate. The last elections were somewhat paradoxical, because this time both the opposition and the authorities, who made every effort to remain at the helm of the country, worked to increase turnout. And Nicolas Maduro had a key advantage here, which was expressed in the following: from 5 to 7 million Venezuelans live outside Venezuela, and 21 million citizens were entered into the electoral register. The vast majority of Venezuelans living abroad turned out to be quite oppositional, but only 70,000 of these 5-7 million people received the right to vote. Nicolas Maduro blocked the land border with Colombia in advance, allegedly under the pretext of ensuring security. This ruled out the possibility of even a theoretical return of oppositional citizens to the country. Millions of votes did not go to the opposition‘s piggy bank, thereby contributing to the preponderance of votes in favor of the current government.
The results of one of the polls conducted by the sociological firm Atlas Intel, which at one time most accurately predicted the victory of Javier Miley in the elections in Argentina in 2023, also did not exclude the victory of Edmundo Gonzalez, but the gap between the candidates was almost minimal: from 5 to 7 percentage points. Incumbent President Nicolas Maduro won 51% of the vote, while Edmundo Gonzalez, on the contrary, lost about 8%. In fact, the gap that Atlas Intel predicted took place, but that’s just not in favor of the opposition candidate. This fact can be explained quite simply: it is necessary to recall the spread of turnout by region, about voters who failed to vote abroad, and about the broad strata of the population who directly depend on the favor of the authorities, social benefits and social housing. These people are afraid of losing their jobs, because otherwise they will have nothing to live on, and it will take several months to find a new job. For them, deciding to vote for the opposition is equivalent to emigrating from the country. In other words, this is a very serious step that not everyone has the courage to take.
The latest sociological survey conducted immediately before the elections showed that today it is impossible to talk about “unprecedented fraud“, which was repeated by the unconditional moral leader of the opposition, Maria Corina Machado. That is, Nicolas Maduro had, although doubtful, but still certain chances of success. But the government decided to play it safe and put pressure on voters and observers.
But still, why has the opposition failed to win once again, and will it be able to win at all in the future? The above-mentioned features of the polls were hardly a big secret for opponents of Nicolas Maduro. Why, then, did the opposition rush so hard into a campaign in which victory was highly doubtful? Did you earn money from Western partners? It is quite a possible option, but you should not deceive yourself and think that in real politics someone is engaged in “participating in elections for the sake of the elections themselves“, in the absence of any prospects.
Apparently, some of the supporters of the opposition and the leaders of the United Democratic Platform turned out to be so blinded by their faith in their own strength that they rejected the possibility of their defeat as fiction. They seemed to have no doubt that even if they lost, the authoritarian regime of Nicolas Maduro would leave the political horizon in Venezuela and go into opposition. To think so would be blind, short-sighted, even stupid. However, it was precisely these dreams that opposition politicians attached themselves to. Underestimating their own strength and overestimating Maduro‘s strength played a cruel joke on them. Such logic also ruled out the need for an agreement with some of the Soviet elites, who, in fairness, were sometimes not always happy with the government of Nicolas Maduro and the course of the current President.
First of all, it was necessary to reach agreements with the military, who are the guarantor of Nicolas Maduro’s power. It was necessary to discuss with them the specifics of the transition to a democratic regime of government. The opposition did not accept the fact that the military itself was also not pro-democratic. Representatives of the Chavista and army elites dissatisfied with Maduro were given a secondary role in terms of the opposition: they were supposed to become extras who would not interfere with the transition of power. But it would be completely stupid to assume that the military, which traditionally plays an important role both in Venezuela and in all third world countries, will refrain from trying to take power into their own hands and reform the country by bringing representatives of the military junta to power. And then the opposition would face the question of which is better: an authoritarian Maduro or a military junta that does not take into account the opinion of the people and the opposition.
to be continued
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