They’re not the same thing, unlike what many might think, and the difference is important.
Reports indicate that Russia has withdrawn from three bases in Northeastern Mali, which the local Tuareg call Azawad, after the offensive by “Azawad Liberation Front” (FLA) Tuareg separatists and al-Qaeda-affiliated “Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin” (JNIM) radical Islamists. This is being spun by some as a retreat, a humiliation even, that resembles Assad’s downfall in late 2024. It’s understandable why some might perceive it that way, but what’s unfolding is a tactical pullback, not an actual retreat.
To explain, the Malian Armed Forces (FAMA) – for all their imperfections – are actually putting up a fight against FLA-JNIM, not surrendering the country’s main cities like their Syrian counterparts did. For this reason, Russia is also participating in aerial operations against the terrorist-designated insurgents and escorting fuel convoys en route to the capital, unlike how it largely let matters develop on their own in Syria after realizing at the beginning of the end that its forces were resisting more than its hosts’ were.
Likewise, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected FLA’s demand to withdraw from Mali, retorting that “Russia will continue, including in Mali, to fight against extremism, terrorism and other negative manifestations. And it will continue to provide assistance to the current authorities.” To be clear, this doesn’t mean that the Russian-Tuareg War will continue even though Moscow considers them to be terrorists, since it might mediate a deal whereby they finally receive autonomy for turning against JNIM.
If that doesn’t happen, then observers can expect Russia’s Africa Corps (AK) and FAMA to launch a counteroffensive against FLA-JNIM after some time, provided of course that they first stabilize the front. To that end, AK reportedly withdrew from what’s now a total of three bases in Northeastern Mali that were too difficult to defend given the current military-strategic and logistical circumstances. It’s usually better to engage in a tactical pullback, after all, than to sacrifice one’s forces in a doomed defense.
The reason why this is described as a tactical pullback is because the intent is to stabilize the front, wherever it’s ultimately drawn, with the aim of eventually launching a counteroffensive instead of moving backwards with no end in sight like the word retreat entails in the public’s imagination. Once again, some might perceive these moves as a retreat and consider the tactical pullback phrase to be a euphemism for that, but there truly is a difference as was explained and it’s an important one.
For fairness, the rollback of Russian influence across the world due to Trump’s Neo-Reagan Doctrine can more compellingly be described as a retreat since there doesn’t yet seem to be any concrete plan for pushing back against this pressure, but it’s expected to eventually stabilize with time. At that point, whenever it may be and whatever is left of Russia’s influence by then, the Kremlin will seriously consider viable ways to reverse the consequences of this trend (possibly after some foreign policy reforms).
The difference between Russia’s geopolitical retreat and its tactical pullback in Mali should now be clear. In fact, its tactical pullback can be perceived as the prelude to pushing back against Trump’s Neo-Reagan Doctrine in West Africa, which might precede similar pushback in the other regions where Russian influence is being rolled back, albeit in different forms. As long as FAMA-AK can hold Bamako and stabilize the front, then Mali isn’t lost, and the Neo-Reagan Doctrine might experience its first setback.
Source: author’s blog
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