Things are looking bleaker by the day for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, most notably for his standing as a competent leader in full mastery of his office. After allegations were made that he had received warnings from the United Arab Emirates leader President Mohamed bin Zayed (MBZ) that the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas was, if not imminent then certainly most likely, a sense of paralytic denial has taken hold.
The claim by Haaretz, based on research for the book Hostages: 843 Days of Abandonment by Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval, finds Netanyahu being told, in unambiguous terms, that an attack by Hamas was being planned. A 45-minute conversation apparently took place between the UAE President and Netanyahu, in which the Emirati leader warned of the potentially destabilising intentions of the late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Talks between Hamas and Netanyahu’s office that had begun in 2023 in search of temporary truce had stalled. Sinwar was getting testy.
The Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel has also emerged as another prominent figure to bulk the warnings on Hamas’s ominous intentions, with The Wall Street Journal reporting as much on September 27. To this can be added the initial revelations from the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, and recent work done by Vivian Salama for The Atlantic on the subject. “Kamel’s 2023 visit, details of which have not been previously reported,” writes Salama, “underscores what dozens of sources have told me: that the Israeli government was repeatedly told of threatening activity by Hamas in the lead-up to October 7.”
What is telling for Netanyahu is the fact that he received three warnings in total from the Egyptians, the second having been personally delivered by Kamel in late September 2023. On September 26, marking the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur, the Israeli leader reflected on the surprise attack on Israel by Syria and Egypt as a product of missed cues on intelligence and an example of self-delusion. Two hours later, a Cessna jet carrying Kamel arrived at Ben Gurion Airport for a brief stay of 67 minutes. The message he carried, as described by an Israeli official briefed on the visit, was hard to misunderstand: “If you don’t change course, Gaza is going to blow up in your faces.” The suggestion from the spy chief was that Hamas be palliated by economic concessions.
Corroboration of this can also be found in remarks made by the US Rep. Michael McCaul, the Republican chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, following a closed-door intelligence briefing held after the attacks. “We know,” he told reporters, “that Egypt had warned the Israelis three days prior that an event like this could happen.”
The response from Israeli officials was haughtily dismissive, though Netanyahu did approve some economic concessions to Hamas towards the end of that September. Things were otherwise in hand. According to the WSJ, Egyptian officials proved undeterred, continuing “to warn Israel up until 48 hours before the attack”. (Kamel issued another warning in October, having “grown increasingly alarmed” that the warnings in June and September had been shrugged off.) But eyes remained focused away from Gaza. This meant that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) could dismiss warnings by female observers on Gaza’s border that Hamas had been more energetic than usual in its training. That same attitude also made short work of a blueprint of the organisation’s attack plans, regarded as highly improbable. Nadav Pollak, a seasoned Israeli intelligence figure, suggested that Israelis had fallen “in love too much with our own notions about what we know or how we know our enemy.”
These revelations have furnished much grist for the mill in the opposition camp. Prime Ministerial contender Gadi Eisenkot is adamant that the latest reports “regarding warnings from the heads of Israel’s security establishment and various officials from foreign countries leaves no room for doubt: Netanyahu lead the State of Israel, in blindness, arrogance and irresponsibility, to the greatest disaster in its history”.
For his part, Netanyahu is crying foul, doing what he does best: blame others for his failings. He has busily filed legal suits against such outlets as Haaretz, Yedioth Ahronoth, and Channel 12, along with reporters Shlomi Eldar, Uri Misgav, Nadav Eyal, Barak Ravid, and Attila Somfalvi. A sum of NIS 2.6 million (US$850,000) is being claimed. “It is not by accident,” the PM’s party Likud explained by way of justification in a statement, “that these lies are being published now, on the eve of an election, by political rivals and hostile foreign powers.” The suit also reiterates Netanyahu’s denials that he either met with or spoke to the Emirati leader or Kamel prior to the attacks. “This is a total invention meant to fatally harm the security of the country and the prime minister, while blatantly violating all journalist ethics with the full knowledge that it is not true.”
In domestic intelligence service Shin Bet has also filed a complaint against Channel 12 for its report on Netanyahu’s clandestine visit to the UAE on September 27, appealing to the chief military censor to hold the network to account for breaching censorship rules. According to a statement issued by the PM’s office, publishing details of the visit “endangered the lives of the prime minister and his wife, as well as the delegation, which included the head of Mossad” along with other senior officials. In keeping with a rusted pattern of combative behaviour, Netanyahu’s political approach remains a mixture of sulfuric potions, self-interest camouflaged as Israeli security, and an unwillingness to accept the fatal failings that an impervious hubris brings.
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