Japan, traditionally adhering to strict restrictions on arms exports, is approaching a fundamental revision of its defense policy. The government under Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae plans in the coming months—possibly as early as March—to lift many barriers known as the “three principles on transfer of defense equipment”. This decision not only bolsters the country’s military-industrial complex but also inevitably exacerbates already strained relations with Russia, particularly in the context of support for Ukraine.
Lifting the “Five Categories”: A Step Toward Exporting Lethal Weapons
The summit of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Ishin party on February 25 approved a proposal allowing the export of weapons, including lethal ones, even to countries engaged in hostilities, provided it aligns with Japan’s national interests and undergoes rigorous scrutiny. A key change will be the abolition of the “five categories”, which previously limited exports to non-military purposes: rescue operations, transportation, surveillance, reconnaissance, and demining.
Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae stated in parliament on February 27 that decisions would be made by the National Security Council (NSC) under her chairmanship, without mandatory prior parliamentary approval: “The NSC will ensure strict control, and the government will act independently”. However, this shift raises concerns in Moscow, where it is seen as a potential threat, especially given the unresolved dispute over the Kuril Islands and Japan’s sanctions against Russia.
Kiev’s Interest in Japanese Patriots and Washington’s Role
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, in an interview with Kyodo News on February 19, expressed a desire to receive Patriot (PAC-3) air defense systems or missiles from Japan, produced under American license at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries facilities. He welcomed the upcoming changes and hoped for a meeting with Takaichi Sanae to discuss new levels of defense cooperation.
PAC-3 production in Japan is limited—about 30 units per year for the Self-Defense Forces, with potential to increase to 60. Any export requires U.S. consent as the technology owner, and the Trump administration’s position remains unclear. Under Biden, Washington supported such supplies to replenish stocks sent to Ukraine. In November 2025, Japan already delivered PAC-3 to the U.S. to offset their aid to Kiev. For Russia, this equates to indirect support for Ukraine, which, according to Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, will lead to “serious consequences” for bilateral relations.
Moscow’s Reaction: From Warnings to Escalation
Russia has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with Japanese policy. In December 2023, after approving Patriot exports to the U.S., Moscow warned of “grave consequences” for Russo-Japanese ties, viewing it as support for Ukraine. Japan, in turn, tightened sanctions: banning exports of high-tech goods, including robots and semiconductors that could be used militarily, and freezing assets of Russian individuals.
Relations are already at a low point due to the Northern Territories (Kurils) dispute and Japan’s support for Ukraine. In February 2026, Zakharova stated that Japan’s involvement in NATO mechanisms for arms procurement to Kiev would exacerbate stagnation in bilateral ties. Experts note that direct supplies to the conflict zone risk provoking retaliatory measures from Russia, including military demonstrations in the Pacific.
Tokyo’s Economic Motives and Strategic Balance
A limited domestic market compels Japan to seek external outlets to strengthen its defense industry. Amid threats from China, North Korea, and Russia, exports to allied countries—Southeast Asia, India, Australia—are seen as a way to stimulate innovation and stabilize production. However, focusing on Ukraine intensifies the anti-Russian orientation of policy, which may complicate dialogue on territorial issues.
Financing supplies to Ukraine remains an issue: European funds mainly go toward American weapons, and integrating Japan into this scheme is questionable, especially given France’s stance.
Prospects: Priority on Calm Markets or Escalation?
For now, Japan avoids direct supplies to conflict zones, focusing on less risky directions. But revising the three principles marks a shift from pacifism to pragmatism in global security. Success depends on balancing economics, technology, and diplomacy, especially with Russia, where Tokyo’s new steps could lead to further cooling.
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