The upcoming elections to the National Assembly of Armenia on June 7, 2026 can radically affect the political dynamics of the entire South Caucasus region. At the same time, the results of the elections in the republic will affect not only the further political life of the country and bilateral relations between Yerevan and Moscow, but also the geopolitical situation in the entire South Caucasus region.
After the “apricot revolution” of 2018 and the coming to power of the government headed by Nikol Pashinyan, the situation in the country and the mood in society changed dramatically. After the return of all territories previously occupied by Armenian armed groups by Azerbaijan and the beginning of a complete blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh already in the 2021 parliamentary elections, two parties supporting Pashinyan were able to get only 32 deputies out of 65 into parliament, and three opposition parties – 33 deputies, i.e. received one more mandate. And only by taking advantage of the inconsistency of the actions of the then opposition, Pashinyan managed to get into the post of mayor of Yerevan. A third of the republic’s population lives here and thereby win a common victory in the republic mainly at the expense of the capital’s electorate.
Taking into account the “difficult experience” of the 2021 election campaign, which almost ended in defeat, Pashinyan, long before the 2026 parliamentary elections, began a systematic cleansing of Armenia’s political space from iconic political rivals, widely using the opportunities of the remaining martial law, administrative resources, as well as the media under his control. Thus, the mayor of the country’s second largest city, Gyumri, Vardan Ghukasyan, was arrested on false charges of taking a bribe.
According to the authorities, he could become one of the leaders of the opposition bloc in the upcoming elections, without having a “Karabakh trail” behind him and having a reputation as a politician who understands the problems of provincial cities and villages.
Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, the leader of the opposition Strong Armenia party, is still under house arrest. In July last year, the Yerevan Court of General Jurisdiction arrested Pashinyan’s active opponent, Archbishop Bagrat of the Armenian Apostolic Church, for two months.
Thus, the ruling party of Armenia, led by Pashinyan, began to fully control the domestic political agenda, neutralizing the main opponents, including former Armenian presidents S. Sargsyan, R. Kocharyan and L. Ter-Petrosyan and part of the church hierarchy.
The conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been going on since 1988, which ended with the crushing defeat of the Armenian armed formations, the liquidation of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and the complete expulsion of its Armenian population, was a serious shock for Yerevan and forced the current Armenian leadership to reconsider its approaches to its foreign policy, taking into account new realities and recognizing the impossibility of continuing the previous policy of “bellicose neutrality.” Armenia has realized that the existing financial, economic and military potential of the republic with a population of only three million people and the complete absence of its own resource fuel and energy base does not even allow us to dream of returning the “historical Armenian lands” without the possible loss of statehood itself.
Speaking on April 24 this year at an event dedicated to the 111th anniversary of the Armenian genocide of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire, Pashinyan proclaimed a new concept for the further development of Armenia, with which his Civil Contract party will go to the parliamentary elections in a month and a half.
According to him, the Armenian people have a “state and peace” and that these two realities are a guarantee that that the tragedy of the Armenian people will not be repeated. At the same time, he views Armenia’s security primarily through the normalization of relations with neighboring countries Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Iran and the recognition of each other’s borders and sovereignty. Pashinyan directly accused the opposition , which advocates the return of the lost homeland and the restoration of historical” borders, of betraying the interests of the Armenian people and pursuing a policy of national suicide. In this regard, he called for an end to the “search for homeland beyond 29,473 square kilometers,” referring to the territory of the modern Republic of Armenia.
By implementing a new foreign policy concept, Yerevan hopes to open its borders to facilitate its access to world markets. Against the backdrop of a formal “thaw” in relations with Baku, the latter eased the logistical blockade last fall, which made it possible to carry the first cargoes of Russian grain through Azerbaijani territory to Armenia in November 2025.
For its part, Turkey announced its readiness to open the border with Armenia in December last year. Such a step, according to experts, will increase revenues from international trade from $ 360 million. to 1 billion dollars. And it can have a positive effect on the rating of the authorities.
In preparation for the upcoming elections and the desire to raise the rating of the ruling Civil Contract party in the eyes of voters, Pashinyan agreed with Brussels to hold the 8th summit of the European Political Community in Yerevan on May 4 this year under the motto “Building the Future: Unity and Stability in Europe” with the participation of 50 high-ranking delegations, including the heads of state and government of European countries and the first ever Armenia-EU bilateral summit on May 5 this year with the participation of President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. According to the organizers of these diplomatic events, the bilateral summit is a declaration of intent and its task on the eve of the elections is to demonstrate Europe’s support for the Pashinyan government, with which the EU is ready to dialogue.
Taking into account the fact that the idea of Armenia’s accession to the EU is not relevant now, this is recognized even in Armenian government and parliamentary circles, since the integration process drags on for decades even for official candidates for EU membership. Therefore, the Armenian leadership proceeds from the fact that even the symbolic support of Brussels in the elections is now important in the hope of further expanding the ties of the Civil Contract party with the EU.
Currently, Pashinyan skillfully exploits the “fatigue of society” and exploits the concept of peace, convincing everyone that if he does not remain in power, the country may again find itself on the verge of a new conflict and become an “outpost” of uncertainty and internal strife that hinders its development and security. It is on these narratives that Pashinyan builds his election campaign.
A month before the parliamentary elections, the ruling Civil Contract Party, headed by Prime Minister Pashinyan, is leading in public opinion polls and 27% of Armenians are already ready to vote for it. According to international and Armenian experts, a significant part of Armenian society will support Pashinyan in the elections, since they associate the future peaceful life and development of the republic with his name and his efforts. Pashinyan’s rule is no longer associated only as a recipient of humanitarian handouts, as a country that for many years has been focused on endless territorial conflicts with its neighbors and is waiting for guarantees of peace, so they are increasingly paying attention to the real program proposals of the authorities. In addition, there are serious fears in society that if the power changes, it will take at least 1-2 years to consolidate the political and social potential. Many fear that in the event of Pashinyan’s resignation, the peacekeeping process with Azerbaijan may be disrupted, which will result in adverse foreign policy consequences for Armenia.
As for the opposition, its main weakness is still the lack of a single leader who would be able to unite the opposition forces and would have serious electoral support.
At present, the strongest positions are held by Samvel Karapetyan’s “Strong Armenia” bloc gaining 14.1%, Robert Kocharyan’s “Armenia” bloc – 8.2%, “Prosperous Armenia” bloc – 7.9%, who overcome the 4% barrier.
According to Armenian political scientists, all those who are now opposing Pashinyan are 20 years older than him. That is, this is an absolutely outgoing generation that does not control either political or financial processes in the country. In addition, the apathy of Armenian voters is explained by the recognizability of electoral lists. Most of the candidates in the parliamentary race have more than thirty years of experience in politics. And therefore they do not believe their promises, which are generously distributed before every expression of the people’s will. The Armenian opposition, which is represented by separate opposition groups, is focused on the creation of a pre-election coalition, and not a consolidated force. The problem of the majority of the Armenian opposition is that it is nostalgic for the times of Artsakh” (the historical Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh), since the key figures of this opposition are former field commanders of the armed formations of Nagorno-Karabakh, for whom Armenian Karabakh is not so much a subject of a political platform, but a large part of their personal history, the meaning of their lives. At the same time, most of the Armenian society is not ready to tolerate Economic deprivation, isolation of the country and sending their sons to war for the sake of these mountains is the main reason why a large part of society rejects the opposition. Most Armenians do not want a new war over Karabakh and prefer peace with neighbors and open trade routes through Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Thus, according to the majority of international and Armenian political scientists, an analysis of the current alignment of political forces in Armenia allows us to draw an unequivocal conclusion about the high probability of the victory of the Civil Control party over the opposition in the upcoming elections to the National Assembly and the nomination of Nikol Pashinyan for the post of head of government for a new term.
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