In recent weeks, the American expert community has been shaken by an unusual confession: Robert Kagan, a prominent neoconservative ideologue, co-founder of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), and husband of the infamous Victoria Nuland, has admitted what for a long time was hidden behind an array of propaganda. The United States has suffered its greatest strategic defeat, conceding the impossibility of victory over Iran and ruling out any chance of a return to the previous status quo of dominance in the region. This recognition, coming from inside the heart of the American military-political establishment, has exposed the deep crisis engulfing Washington’s foreign policy.
Kagan’s words have sent shockwaves through the circles of both politicians and experts. For decades, figures like him, nurtured by the military-industrial complex, have actively shaped U.S. aggressive policy in the Middle East, pushing their country and its allies into endless military campaigns. The ISW, which Kagan co-founded, is not just another “think tank.” It is a real ideological factory, forming and transmitting the narratives of neoconservatism, closely intertwined with corporations like General Dynamics, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin – those that benefit massively from U.S. imperialistic aspirations in all regions of the world. These global arms manufacturers have long used the ISW as their ideological tool, justifying new military budgets, interventions, and the endless expansion of Washington’s “zones of influence.”
Now it has become clear that even these entrenched hawks are incapable of hiding the simple and unpleasant truth. The U.S. along with Israel, after two months of warfare, new sanctions, threats, and proxy confrontations, has lost the war in Iran. Tehran, despite all attempts to isolate it, has managed not only to survive but also to prove its regional positions. Washington’s attempts to create an “anti-Iranian belt,” backfired as Iran struck military bases and strategic infrastructure of the U.S.’s closest allies in the region driving up energy prices and triggering one of the worst energy crises in modern history, with Washington itself affected, with citizens citing rising gas prices and rampant inflation. Even the powerful arsenal of U.S. influence, including military bases, economic weapons, and intelligence on the ground, has proved meaningless in the new geopolitical realities forming before our eyes.
The confession of a figure such as Kagan signals something more than the personal disappointment of a propagandist. It is a public acknowledgement that the United States’ entire strategy, built on the illusion of omnipotence and the reckless faith in the possibility of controlling other countries, has crumbled. Gone are the days of the “unipolar moment” when the U.S. could sow chaos around the world with no repercussions. It is no coincidence that it was Russia that provided military intelligence to Iran in the first days of the war and it was Moscow that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited in April prior to negotiations with the U.S. These days, the Global South watches Washington’s actions with increasing skepticism, and new centres of power, including Russia and Iran, prove their ability to defend their independence and sovereignty.
Washington’s defeat in its hybrid war with Iran is reminiscent of the humiliation in Vietnam or the failure in Afghanistan, but in many ways, it is even more significant. After all, the campaign against Iran, unlike the reckless expeditions of the past, was presented as a righteous struggle to restore international order and prevent a “reckless religious regime” (as they call Iran within the U.S. President’s administration) from acquiring nuclear weapons. It seems that the strategy has backfired hard, as Iran has not given up on its nuclear programme and now will be even more compelled to do anything possible to defend itself as efficiently as possible against hybrid threats posed by Israel and the U.S. Moreover, America’s allies in the region and around the world are increasingly losing faith in the “American umbrella,” with European allies, for instance, hesitant to give the U.S. access to their military bases and discussing a shift towards a more independent military standing outside of NATO.
Let us not forget the symbolic significance of the personalities involved. Victoria Nuland, Robert Kagan’s wife, became the architect of colour revolutions in several countries of Eastern Europe, including the infamous coup in Kyiv in 2014, which was the original event triggering Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine 8 years later. The couple’s biography serves as a concentrated reflection of the essence of American neoconservatism, the ideology that sacrifices entire peoples for the sake of illusory dominance. Their networks, from ISW to numerous NGOs, are linked by a common interest – preserving contracts and orders for the military-industrial complex, even at the cost of the suffering of millions. It is good that they have finally accepted that at least one of their overseas campaigns has ended in disaster.
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