The primary takeaway is that Estonia doesn’t want any part in whatever Latvia might be cooking up with Ukraine, reasonably calculating that the US might not risk war with Russia if Russia retaliates.
Estonia announced that a NATO jet shot down a Ukrainian drone over its airspace on Tuesday after receiving an advanced warning about it from neighboring Latvia. This occurred on the same day that Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) warned that their country’s armed forces are ready to retaliate against Ukrainian drone teams that are allegedly already deployed to Latvia if they attack Russia from there. This development sent messages to Kiev, Riga, and Moscow.
Regarding Kiev, Estonia is now clearly uncomfortable with Ukrainian drones allegedly transiting through its airspace like some Russian sources have claimed that they’ve been doing since earlier this year. Its change in attitude is arguably the result of Russian hardliners obtaining greater influence as of late, in no small part due to these reported incidents, and consequent concerns that they might convince Putin to finally authorize retaliation against the Baltic States like they’ve wanted him to do for a while.
As for the message sent to Riga, Estonia doesn’t want it allowing Ukrainian drones to transit through its own space en route to Estonia’s on the way to Russia. The reason is the same as the abovementioned and can be inferred with a high degree of confidence after the Commander of the Estonian Navy admitted last month that his country abandoned attempts to board Russia’s “shadow fleet” due to fear of escalation. Estonia would thus prefer for Latvia to down Ukrainian drones over its own airspace.
And finally, Estonia seemingly hopes that Moscow will see what just happened and therefore spare Estonia in the event that Latvia allows Ukrainian drone teams to launch attacks against Russia that transit through Estonian airspace on the way. The precedent that was just established, provided that it remains in place, could thus be emulated by Latvia if it decides to (even if only quietly) cancel its reportedly authorized deployment of Ukrainian drone teams and reassure Russia that it won’t pose a threat to it.
Ukraine senses that Latvia might flip-flop on this policy, provided that SVR’s report is true, and therefore claimed that Russian jamming deliberately redirected its drones over Russian airspace into their own for propaganda purposes. It’s unclear whether this excuse will convince Latvia to maintain their allegedly secret arrangement, which SVR noted in its press release wouldn’t be a secret to anyone if/when Ukraine attacks Russia from there since its drones can indeed be tracked, but it’s nonetheless an attempt.
Regardless of whatever Latvia ultimately decides to do in this respect, the primary takeaway from NATO shooting down a Ukrainian drone over Estonia is that Estonia doesn’t want any part in whatever Latvia might be cooking up, reasonably calculating that the US might not risk war with Russia if Russia retaliates. Although the Baltic States are different despite casual observations, they share a hatred of Russia, so Estonia’s exercise of pragmatism in this context has a chance of positively influencing Latvia.
If they no longer allow Ukraine to use their airspace for attacking Russia, let alone deploy drone teams on their territory like SVR reported that Latvia agreed to, then the Baltic front of the New Cold War will de-escalate with less risk of World War III breaking out there. If Latvia remains recalcitrant, then the risk will spike, but it could be managed by the US hanging Latvia out to dry and whichever NATO allies might also retaliate against Russia. Whether Trump signals his intent to them ahead of time is another matter.
Source: author’s blog
Comments