Larry Johnson said in interviews on May 20th, that America’s only allies in the Middle East will likely be Israel and Jordan, as a result of which the U.S. will be defeated by Iran if Trump goes for another invasion of Iran.
Johnson made clear that crucial to American success in another bombing campaign against Iran would be American bases in Saudi Arabia, which would be essential for air-refueling of America’s bombers in order for the bombers to be able to return from their missions.
4:03
Okay, that means those planes are going to have to be refueled even before they get within 300 miles of Riyadh. And then
4:12
from there they fly, you know, they finished the other 300 miles to Riyadh and they can just pass Riyadh, they could
4:20
launch a tomahawk or a JASM missile into Iran and then they’ve got to be immediately refueled. So for these planes to
4:30
operate, each F-35 is going to need at least probably minimum of four air refuelings
4:38
just to stay in the air and just and be able to get back to the home base. So this is why these air refuelers forward
4:45
position there in Saudi Arabia are critical.
4:50
Furthermore, Iran has been recently supplied by Russia and China with vastly more effective weaponry to shoot down America’s bombers.
The Saudis, Qataris, and UAE, have also been informed by Iran that if their U.S. military bases will be used in another U.S. bombing campaign against Iran, Iran will knock out and totally destroy their water-desalination plants that are essential for their remaining alive.
The new, non-American, security structure for the Gulf oil kingdoms, will be a Russia-China-Pakistani-Turkish Alliance, which will protect both the Arab monarchs and Iran, and neither America nor Israel will be safe to go up against it. That will end the U.S. empire even if a Russian victory in Ukraine won’t.
On 11 March 2026, John Mearsheimer commented:
17:27
doing that. Uh and ultimately I think if
17:29
we got desperate enough we would not
17:31
either. But again the problem is if we
17:34
do those things um the Iranians will
17:38
retaliate. uh if we go after uh energy
17:42
infrastructure in Iran, the uh Iranians
17:46
will go after more and more energy
17:49
infrastructure
17:51
uh in the Gulf uh in Gulf States. Uh if
17:55
we go after desalination plants, they’ll
17:58
go after desalination plants in places
18:00
like Saudi Arabia and Israel itself. Uh,
18:04
I think the Israelis have four or five
18:06
big desalination plants that they depend
18:09
heavily on and I think the Iranians will
18:12
be incentivized to take them out if we
18:15
or the Israelis or both of us go after
18:18
their desalination plants. Uh, so you
18:21
can see that as we go up the escalation
18:23
ladder, uh, the Iranians will go up with
18:27
us. And I don’t see how you can make the
18:31
case that we have escalation dominance
18:34
in any meaningful way.
18:36
…
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MY COMMENT:
Trump bit off far more than he can chew. The U.S. regime won’t recover from this.
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