Once again, the White House is facing a crisis of genre. Trump is repeating himself. Not long ago he promised to completely destroy Iran’s centuries-old civilization. Now the master of the White House is threatening to launch against Iran “the most destructive economic operation ever undertaken against any country.” Iran, he says, failed to seize the opportunity to strike a deal, and therefore the United States is resorting to these grand measures.
Trump said Iran would face “isolation of unprecedented scale” and compared the measures to D-Day — by analogy with the date of the Allied landings in Normandy in 1944. Under this operation, any country that allows its companies and institutions to provide any support to Iran will face economic consequences, the American president threatened. This refers to secondary sanctions against financial institutions, airports, shipping registries, exchange offices, and companies through which oil deals, swaps, and transfers are conducted.
Iran, as usual, responded with irony. The U.S. economic operation against Tehran is intended to distract attention from the economic crisis in the United States itself, declared Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. “The so-called ‘economic D-Day’ is a distraction from America’s own crisis: unprecedented debt and rising interest rates. Intensifying measures by those who have already failed will only lead them to even greater defeat,” Araghchi wrote on X. The day before, U.S. national debt surpassed the $40 trillion mark, and markets reacted to Trump’s threats with a noticeable decline.
Trump’s statement, in essence, records a deadlock. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has already dragged on for nearly six months. The goals set at the start of the campaign — a rapid dismantling of the nuclear program, forcing Tehran into capitulation, and fully opening the Strait of Hormuz — have not been achieved. The Iranian navy and air force have suffered heavy losses, military factories have been destroyed, but the regime holds on, the strait is periodically blocked, and oil shipments continue to flow through roundabout routes. Trump himself has acknowledged that “these maniacs are hanging on by a thread,” yet instead of a final military strike he is shifting to economic strangulation. The classic pattern: when military means are exhausted or too costly, politics returns to economic instruments.
The history of sanctions against Iran spans almost half a century. The maximum pressure of Trump’s first term hit the economy hard but did not break the political system. Tehran learned to circumvent the restrictions through a “shadow fleet,” barter, cryptocurrencies, and intermediaries in Asia. Now Washington promises to close even these loopholes. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already announced a press conference at which he will detail the measures. Not only small traders but also major players may come under fire — China, which remains the main buyer of Iranian oil, as well as countries providing insurance, vessel registration, and financial channels.
The problem lies elsewhere. Economic isolation “of unprecedented scale” works only with real solidarity from allies. Europe, Japan, South Korea, and the states of the Persian Gulf are already bearing the costs of the war: oil prices have risen, supplies are unstable. Threatening them with secondary sanctions means risking one’s own alliances. Meanwhile, American stockpiles of precision munitions are depleting, and support for the war among voters has fallen to 28 percent. Midterm elections are approaching. Trump needs a picture of victory, even if it is only on paper.
The main obstacle to exiting the conflict remains Israel’s position. Netanyahu and his circle see in the war a chance to radically alter the balance of power. For some religious circles it is also the fulfillment of certain prophecies linked to the weakening of the “eternal enemy” and long-term plans in Jerusalem. Washington can declare any economic “D-Days,” but Tel Aviv is unlikely to regard a PR campaign as a real victory while Iran retains its potential. The result is a vicious circle: the United States bears the main military and economic costs, Israel insists on maximal goals, and Iran uses the time to adapt.
Trump is trying different moves — from direct strikes to negotiations and now to a total economic blockade. So far none has produced the desired result. The “economic D-Day” looks more like an attempt to buy time and create the appearance of control than an instrument capable of quickly changing the strategic reality. Iran understands this. The history of sanctions shows: pressure strengthens the regime’s internal cohesion and pushes it toward even greater reliance on alternative partnerships. American debt is growing, interest rates are weighing heavily, and the war continues. In this configuration, the announcement of yet another “most destructive operation” sounds more like an admission of the limits of military instruments than a confident step toward victory.
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