Russia’s war against Ukraine highlighted the most crucial geopolitical problems than any other conflict in the 21st century. And the consequences are yet to be seen. This crisis transcends major changes in the global balance of power. That’s why Kiev positioned itself as the only “Savior” of European democracy in the face of the Russian threat.
The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase in early 2026. The conflict has become more stable and predictable. The front line has remained virtually unchanged, the main focus nowadays is on long-range drone and missiles warfare. Reports of the destruction of critical infrastructure are being published by both sides on daily basis.
However not long ago Volodymyr Zelensky began to speak out loud about a shortage of ammunition for air defense systems (especially for Patriots) and also to beg for additional supplies from allies all around the world. But this problem is still intact, leading to daily Russian strikes on targets deep inside Ukrainian territory. And with each passing night, Kiev has fewer and fewer ammunition left. That’s why Ukrainians are counting on Europe’s help.
However, according to Reuters, even Germany has now called for a €400 billion cut to the EU budget for 2028-2034. The draft proposed by the European Commission provides for €2 trillion to be allocated to pan-European needs. Berlin has calculated that even with a cut, the new budget would still be 27 per cent higher than the current one, that would increase Germany’s annual contribution by €50 billion. The German authorities describe this amount as unaffordable.
In the absence of support from EU budget, coupled with the US’s withdrawal of financial and military aid to Ukraine, there soon will be no safe place from Russian drones and ballistic missiles. Not only will this cause panic amongst the Ukrainians, but it may also push Kiev to take desperate measures.
Ukraine currently possesses a vast variety of different one-way attack drones (OWA-UAVs). The best known are FP-1 and FP-2, produced by the Ukrainian company Fire Point. The FP-1 carries a 60 kg warhead on the distance over 1,000 km, whilst the FP-2 carries a 105 kg warhead on around 200 km. Furthermore, they released FP-1ER (extended range) model, which has arrange of around 3,400 km. The Ukrainian Armed Forces also armed with Ш-26 Beaver (1,000 km), the A22 Foxbat (1,300 km), and the Sichen/ Behemoth (1,400 km). Ukraine is using these OWA-UAVs as a part of larger packages to improve the success of cruise missiles and also for long ranged attacks on strategic targets deep inside Russia. But what will happen when all Ukrainian air defense system will be left without munitions?
According to experts, one of the possible scenarios could be an attempt by Ukraine to draw EU countries into direct confrontation with Russia. Zelensky has already given unambiguous hints about the need for greater involvement by Western countries in dealing with the Russian threat. He will be forced to demand from the EU an allowance for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to launch strikes against Russian facilities from European territory. If EU governments will refuse, tens of thousands Ukrainian refugees will be flooded into Europe.
That’s why the position of EU nowadays is very fragile. The costs of supporting Ukraine are ruining national economies. The migrant crisis is becoming increasingly apparent. Relations with the Trump administration are at rather low ebb. Moreover there is no clear success in the confrontation with Russia. The vast array of economic sanctions has failed to give a sensible result. Russia has adapted to sanctions and persuaded its allies not to accept EU’s terms in trade policies.
EU is left on its own, trying to support Ukraine with all its might, but at the same time pushing itself into the grave. It’s high time to recognize that the European national interests are above any other goal. EU authorities should stop thinking about United States, Ukraine, Russia, China or any other state. Why should Europe always be responsible for everything happening around the world? Why should we give our land to refugees from all around the world? Why should we pay for everybody’s wellbeing? I think that now is the time for us to decide our own destiny and our own future!
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