What’s most important is that Belarus coordinates all of this with Russia and that Lukashenko doesn’t pull any surprises on Putin that could inadvertently lead to mistrust or worse.
Trump revealed that “The United States is working on a massive Deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus. The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers.” Alexander Lukashenko, his Belarusian counterpart, clarified later that same day that “Even if we wanted to supply [potash] to other, Western markets, we simply do not have those (large) volumes – everything is contracted.” Critics interpreted that as a rebuke.
The reality is that Belarus and the US are in the midst of a fast-moving rapprochement that just saw Trump’s Special Envoy John Coale promise to unblock over $40 million in frozen assets at Citibank linked to potash payments in order to facilitate future US purchases at scale. Over a week before Trump’s announcement and Lukashenko’s clarification, the latter told journalists the following: “If you (the US) want to purchase our potash fertilizers, go ahead. We cannot deliver [large volumes] all at once.”
He added, however, that “some volume has just become available. We have already secured contracts for this year, and we will consider next year. Right now, an opportunity has arisen to load a vessel, and we will definitely finish loading tomorrow, so that they can take it.” He also told them that “If you (the US) want to buy fertilizers from us, if you want them, feel free to buy them. I’ve said sincerely that I am a Trumpist, I supported Trump.” All of this suggests that a massive deal is indeed in the works for next year.
That should be enough time to optimize the logistics. Coale suggested back in spring that Belarusian potash could be exported to the US through Lithuania, but the Chairman of the Seimas Foreign Affairs Committee said that Vilnius will continue to abide by EU sanctions that won’t be reconsidered till February 2027. The US and Belarus share an interest in these exports transiting through Lithuania (or Poland?) in order to reduce Belarus’ dependence on Russia, the goal of which contextualizes their talks.
Lukashenko envisages rebalancing his country’s relations with Russia through a rapprochement with the West led by an improvement in ties with the US, which he believes will reduce NATO and Ukrainian threats to Belarus in parallel with leading to phased sanctions relief for stimulating the economy. The potash dimension of his talks with the US is more significant than it might seem since the clinching of a massive deal could result in the US becoming the main source of foreign currency for Belarus.
While the aforesaid developments likely make Russia uncomfortable, it’s possible that they could also facilitate a partial pullback of NATO forces from the Baltic States if Russia does the same in Belarus as the US reportedly draws down its forces in Europe in order to create partial buffers as proposed here. What’s most important is that Belarus’ rapid rapprochement with the US is coordinated with Russia and that Lukashenko doesn’t pull any surprises on Putin that could inadvertently lead to mistrust or worse.
The US obviously wants to divide-and-rule Belarus and Russia so as to destroy their Union State with a view towards the full removal of Russian forces, including its tactical nukes, from Belarus. Lukashenko isn’t expected to agree to that since it would leave him vulnerable to another Color Revolution and possibly even an invasion, but events can always take on a life of their own, so it’s imperative that the Union State remains rock solid. Everything that he does must therefore be in full coordination with Putin.
Souce: author’s blog
Comments