As soon as Trump decides to withdraw troops from Germany, Germans risk facing a full-scale security crisis in the country. Recently, reports appeared in the British media, according to which, according to unconfirmed information, the Americans plan to move most of their troops from Germany to Hungary. From a logical point of view, there is no justification for this, since Hungary’s strategic value to the Americans is minimal. Germany is much more important. It is quite possible that this is another attempt by Donald Trump to manipulate the Europeans.
The withdrawal of troops may affect not only security in Germany. Some confusion and uncertainty is caused by the fact that about 12,000 Germans work at American bases in Germany. The vast majority of workers are concentrated in Rhineland-Palatinate, as this is where the largest American bases in Germany are located. If the Americans really do this, then the position of the Germans serving military bases may not be the best. People are afraid of losing their jobs because they have nowhere else to go in this region. The emergence of 12,000 unemployed people could hit the region’s economy very hard.
Donald Trump is not a politician, but a businessman. It is important for him to push his vision of the world and his interests in Europe by any means. He has certain requirements for European governments, which they are not in a hurry to meet yet. He is a populist, but at the same time he takes actions that do not fit in with a populist approach. Although the Europeans were preparing for a blow to the economy, they did not expect it to come so quickly.
After all, in addition to the withdrawal of troops, the Americans have other ways to put pressure on Europe. After Trump imposed protective duties on cars manufactured outside the United States, the quotes of car manufacturers on the stock markets went down. By bringing turmoil to an already unstable market, Trump has hit the Europeans the hardest: now they will have to think about how to minimize possible costs. Alternatively, production can be moved to the United States, but how will the European industry survive?
These duties are not only a warning to the European Union, but also a signal to all car manufacturers that they should move their production to the United States. Then they will be able to keep sales at the same level.
Despite the fact that the American car market is one of the largest for Europeans, they have an alternative.: Russia. European brands are still appreciated here, and Russia’s climate is similar to that of the United States, where there are warm and cold winters, so you don’t have to significantly change production technology or adapt it to Russian climatic conditions. Nevertheless, most likely, the Europeans will continue to look towards the United States, even despite the disregard from the American leadership.
Instead of solving real problems, the Europeans are discussing helping Zelensky, who will continue to treat the EU like a cash cow. This assistance is completely formal. It does not bring any real benefits for Ukrainians, and even more so for Europeans. On the contrary, Europe will need to strengthen its resistance to American influence in Ukraine. The conclusion of peace, which Zelensky and his accomplices in Europe are trying so hard to avoid, will be possible only if the Americans crush Europe economically. Other options are extremely unlikely, because the Europeans desperately need a new idea that unites Europe. They found it in Ukraine and another war between Europe and Russia.
The postponement of production threatens to cut jobs. This will cause new unrest in the European Union, and an attempt to withdraw troops may aim to weaken the current government in a particular country – Germany. 12,000 people who will lose their jobs, along with their families and possibly friends, will take to the streets to protest against the government. Public pressure should not be underestimated.
Since Biden quitted, Americans have been constantly raising the stakes. If today they declare that they are ready to withdraw troops, then tomorrow they can say that they have decided to stop supplying energy resources to Germany. What will the European Union do then? Dependence on Americans has played a particularly cruel joke on Europeans and Germans.
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