On September 26, China and Russia formally proposed a six-month delay in the activation of the UN’s “snapback” mechanism against Iran. At first glance, this might appear to be a procedural maneuver another bargaining chip in the endless cycle of nuclear disputes and sanctions diplomacy. Yet the timing, substance, and broader implications of this proposal reach far beyond the technicalities of Resolution 2231. They illuminate a deeper contest over the future of global order, where Iran is no longer merely the subject of Western scrutiny but a central player in a multipolar realignment led by Beijing and Moscow.
Snapback was designed in 2015 as a safeguard within the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): if Iran were judged to be in breach, sanctions would automatically be reinstated, bypassing Security Council vetoes. That mechanism was supposed to guarantee discipline and deterrence. But a decade later, the political and strategic landscape has transformed. The United States unilaterally abandoned the JCPOA in 2018, Europe failed to provide the promised economic dividends to Tehran, and Iran itself adjusted by expanding its nuclear capabilities while still stopping short of weaponization. Against this background, the call by China and Russia to delay snapback is not simply about Iran’s compliance; it is a calculated move to contest Western dominance in global governance.
What makes this moment especially revealing is the juxtaposition with recent speeches at the UN General Assembly. On September 23, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed the Iranian public in a rare, extended televised speech, declaring that while the country has achieved 60 percent enrichment a technical threshold matched by only about ten states worldwide Iran would not pursue nuclear weapons.(Press Tv) He reiterated that negotiations with the United States would bring more harm than benefit, framing dialogue not as a diplomatic opportunity but as a trap. A day later, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian echoed the same tone in New York, telling world leaders that Iran’s security lies in resilience and independence, not in concessions to Washington. These statements, reinforced by Tehran’s consistency, signal a paradox: even as snapback looms, Iran is affirming that it will neither build a bomb nor accept subordination. (Al Jazeera).
The Chinese-Russian proposal must therefore be read as part of a multipolar strategy. Both powers have vested interests: China depends heavily on Gulf energy, with more than 80 percent of its crude imports from the region transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Russia sees Iran as a critical partner in bypassing Western sanctions and constructing alternative financial networks. A six-month delay in sanctions provides Beijing and Moscow with breathing space to consolidate energy deals, expand trade in non-dollar currencies, and demonstrate to the Global South that the Western-dominated UN can still be challenged. By aligning with Tehran, they send a message: sanctions are not inevitable, and the legitimacy of unilateral coercion is eroding (Reuters).
For the West, however, this move presents a dilemma. European leaders like Emmanuel Macron have already warned that snapback may need to be triggered by the end of September (Reuters). From their perspective, credibility is tied to enforcement failing to punish Iran risks projecting weakness. But here lies the contradiction: Iran has, in recent months, cooperated with the International Atomic Energy Agency, allowing inspectors to remain in place under the Cairo understanding, yet still finds itself targeted for escalation (Reuters). The optics are devastating for Western diplomacy: punishing cooperation sends the message that compliance has no reward, only submission. This paradox undermines the very logic of arms control, erodes incentives for restraint, and, crucially, convinces states like North Korea that negotiations with the West are futile.
The consequences are not confined to nuclear diplomacy. They extend into the heart of the global economy. The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most vital energy chokepoint, with roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passing through its narrow lanes. Iran does not need to close the strait entirely a move that would likely trigger direct military confrontation. Instead, it can subtly raise costs: complicating shipping routes, signaling heightened risk, or allowing its regional allies to create calibrated disruptions. These measures would drive up insurance premiums, freight costs, and ultimately energy prices (Reuters). For East Asia, already grappling with trade tensions and post-pandemic recovery challenges, such disruptions would be disastrous. For the Global South, dependent on stable fuel prices to secure food imports and maintain fragile growth, the ripple effects could be catastrophic. In this way, snapback is not just a sanctioning tool against Iran; it is a trigger for systemic instability in the global economy.
The broader stakes lie in the credibility of multilateral institutions. If the UN Security Council proceeds with snapback despite active cooperation by Iran and a clear proposal from two of its permanent members to delay enforcement, the institution will appear hollow an arena not of global consensus but of Western enforcement. This perception is already widespread across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where many see the Council as an instrument of great-power rivalry rather than collective security. The rejection of the Chinese-Russian delay would cement this view, accelerating the drift toward alternative blocs such as BRICS+, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and regional security arrangements outside Western influence.
In Washington, the return of Donald Trump to the White House has only deepened this dynamic. His administration’s contempt for multilateral institutions is no secret. Where Joe Biden attempted, however fitfully, to restore faith in collective diplomacy, Trump openly ridicules it. For European allies, this is a nightmare scenario: their credibility is tied to institutions they can no longer effectively defend, while their security remains tethered to a United States increasingly unwilling to lead constructively. For Moscow and Beijing, it is an opportunity to cast themselves as the defenders of order against chaos, of stability against Western arbitrariness.
At its core, the snapback crisis is not about uranium enrichment levels or inspection protocols. It is about who sets the rules of the international system. Iran’s resistance its refusal to either weaponize or capitulate exposes the deeper clash. The West insists that global order must remain anchored in its institutions, values, and hierarchies. China and Russia, with Iran as a frontline state, argue that sovereignty and multipolarity must take precedence. The six-month delay proposal is therefore a symbolic assertion: that time itself, the tempo of sanctions, can no longer be dictated unilaterally by Washington and its allies.
The paradox, however, remains unresolved. If snapback is triggered despite calls for delay, the world risks a spiral: Iran investing further in asymmetric leverage, energy markets destabilizing, multilateral institutions losing credibility, and the Global South bearing disproportionate costs. If, on the other hand, the proposal is accepted, a window opens however small for diplomacy, recalibration, and perhaps the beginning of a truly multipolar dialogue.
The stakes could not be higher. The Cairo understanding between Iran and the IAEA offered a fragile path toward de-escalation. The speeches in New York by Iranian leaders underscored a message of resilience without aggression. And now the Chinese-Russian proposal offers a chance to pause the rush toward confrontation. The choice facing the international community is stark: persist with a punitive mechanism that has already lost legitimacy, or seize the opportunity to rethink the architecture of security in West Asia and beyond.
The coming weeks will reveal which path is chosen. What is clear is that snapback is no longer a technical safeguard; it is a geopolitical gamble whose consequences will reverberate from Hormuz to Beijing, from Moscow to Lagos, and from Washington to the very heart of the United Nations.
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