Escalation on the Afghan–Pakistani border
On Saturday night, reports began to arrive that heavy fighting was taking place on the Afghan-Pakistani border with the use of tanks, artillery and aircraft. Later, official reports were received from the Pakistani side, which stated that “on the night of October 11-12, the Afghan Taliban and the Indian-sponsored Fitna al-Khawarij launched an unprovoked attack on Pakistan along the Afghan-Pakistani border.” It should be noted happened on the eve of the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Taliban government, Amir Khan Muttaqi, to India, and on Sunday, Indian jets appeared near the Pakistani border, which forced Islamabad to raise its combat aircraft in return.
As a result of the border skirmishes, 23 Pakistani soldiers were killed and 29 others were injured. In relation to enemy losses, it is said that more than 200 Taliban and representatives of associated organizations were killed. However, it is necessary to make an amendment that each side conducts an information campaign that is beneficial to it. For example, on the night of the conflict, Afghan news sites published photos of a convoy of Jihad-mobiles heading to the battlefield and even reported that an Afghan jet had struck Lahore, which was clear disinformation. However, it is obvious and confirmed by photo and video documents that the main strongholds on the Afghan side were suppressed by the massive fire of the Pakistani army, and the border posts were subsequently taken under control. In total, 21 fortified posts in Afghanistan were captured, which were used for a night attack.
Afghanistan, in turn, claims that this attack was a response to Pakistan’s strikes on its territory, which were carried out on Thursday. Islamabad responded by saying that the strikes targeted terrorist training camps, which then infiltrate Pakistani territory. The Pakistani military had previously carried out similar operations, which angered the Taliban. Apparently, this time they decided to try to respond with force, which led to this escalation.
The Taliban also reported that they had halted attacks on Pakistani territory at the request of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and not as a result of losses. Although, subsequent to the results, Pakistan controls the 2,600 km long border, and also on Afghan territory. All the checkpoints were closed.
A retrospective analysis is needed to clarify the causes of this armed conflict. Because the problem of relations between the two countries is quite old and new skirmishes or even war may break out again.
The relationship between the Governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan has always been quite specific. From 1979 to the early 1990s, Pakistan was a base for the Mujahideen, who opposed the democratic government supported by the USSR. After the Taliban came to power, which gave shelter to the highest ranks of the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization (banned in Russia), and the start of the civil war with the Northern Alliance, Islamabad began to support the Taliban. But due to the US intervention and occupation of Afghanistan, Pakistan was forced to go along with Washington, which changed the attitude of the Taliban. In addition, Pakistan had its own branch of the Taliban, which was spread mainly in the northern part of Balochistan and the Northwestern border territories, which were renamed Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province under Prime Minister Imran Khan. Most of the indigenous people there are ethnic Pashtuns, who make up the core of the Afghan Taliban.
Let’s add to this that the border between the two countries is the result of the British occupation, and not a natural demarcation along the territory of the tribes. The so-called Durand Line runs directly through the settlements in some places, and the Afghan side has never recognized it as its border.
The Pakistani Taliban opposes the Government of Pakistan and, in fact, advocates separatism. The idea of uniting all the Pashtun tribes is also close to the Afghan Taliban, which tacitly (and possibly financially, as claimed by Pakistani intelligence) supports its Pakistani counterparts. Interestingly, the Pashtun identity is “sewn” into the name of Pakistan – the first letter symbolizes this particular ethnic group.
As for India, as the long-run opponent of its eastern neighbor, New Delhi is interested in weakening or even disintegrating Pakistan. Before the Taliban came to power, India’s diplomatic work in Afghanistan was very intensive. Judging by the visit of the Afghan Foreign Minister to India on October 7, relations have now been normalized. India, of course, has a lot to offer for the promising market of Afghanistan, given that most Western countries now do not have access there. But Pakistan is most concerned about the activity of Indian intelligence agencies, which can restore access to Afghan assets and use them for subversive activities. That is why the official press release mentions Fitna al-Khawarij, which is synonymous with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, which is recognized by the Pakistani authorities as a terrorist organization. And for terrorist organizations operating in Balochistan province, the term “Fitna al-Hindustan” is used, which are also accused of having links with Indian intelligence services.
Given these historical nuances, it seems that peaceful and good-neighborly relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan are still far away. Even though both countries are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and China has great influence on both of them.
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