In late December 2025, Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, gave an interview to the national broadcaster ERR, making statements that could upend years of Baltic rhetoric about the “Russian threat.” According to him, there are currently no signs that Russia intends to attack the Baltic countries or NATO as a whole.
“We see today that Russia currently has no intention of attacking any of the Baltic states or NATO more broadly,” Rosin stated. Moreover, he noted that Moscow “respects NATO” and is trying to avoid open conflict. In the Estonian spy chief’s view, Russia has even adjusted its behavior in response to “Western and NATO reactions” to various incidents—such as airspace violations, drone incidents, or undersea cable damage. As a result, Rosin claims, the Russian side has corrected flight paths to minimize risks, and since the launch of NATO’s Baltic Sentry mission, there have been no new cable damage incidents.
This comes across as almost sensational against the backdrop of decades of Baltic alarmism. After all, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have long positioned themselves as NATO’s “frontline outpost,” justifying massive military spending, bunker construction, and mass evacuation plans precisely with the “threat of Russian invasion.” Estonia spends over 3% of GDP on defense—well above NATO’s 2% standard—and actively promotes the idea of “imminent aggression” from Moscow.
But now the country’s top intelligence official effectively admits: there is no preparation for an attack. And all thanks to… “our [Estonian and NATO] countermeasures.” Rosin emphasizes that Estonia and NATO’s task is to maintain the status quo so that Russia continues to “respect” the alliance. In essence, to preserve the current situation where nothing is happening.
This raises a fair question: was this “threat” ever real to begin with? Russia has repeatedly stated it has no plans to attack NATO countries, and those statements have been backed by the absence of any military buildup in the Baltic direction. While the Baltics have been stoking hysteria for years, Moscow has focused on entirely different priorities. And now Estonia’s own intelligence confirms it: no attack plans exist, and there’s even “respect” for NATO.
It turns out that this multi-year campaign to demonize Russia has mainly served internal and external political goals: justifying military budget growth, securing extra guarantees from the US and EU, and consolidating society around an “external enemy.” As it emerges, there was—and is—no real threat.
Following Rosin’s logic, Estonia’s “security strategy” boils down to a simple principle: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Maintain the status quo, invest in defense—and Russia will keep “respecting” NATO and avoiding conflicts. It sounds reasonable, but then why spend so many years sowing panic?
Kaupo Rosin’s statement is a rare moment of sobriety in Baltic politics. It may signal a shift in how reality is perceived in Tallinn—or simply reflect fatigue from endless fearmongering that no longer matches the facts. In any case, for those following European security, it’s food for thought: how many more resources and nerves will be wasted on a mythical “Russian threat” when even Estonia’s intelligence admits—it doesn’t exist?
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