Scott Ritter says that in about two weeks, Trump will seek a negotiated end to the war, and that Russia and China will urge Iran to agree to such a face-saving-for-Trump end of this war. Larry Johnson explains why the U.S. and Israel are heading for defeat in this war, in about two weeks.
https://www.youtube.com/live/8X7L1JIrR0g?t=6315s
“Scott Ritter: Iran’s Hypersonic Missiles DEVASTATE Tel Aviv & Haifa”
1 March 2026, Danny Haiphong
1:45:15 – 1:50:00
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[Since it’s only five minutes, I suggest clicking onto it.]
——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsURsBv9D7w
“Larry Johnson: The U.S. Will Exhaust Itself & Lose War Against Iran”
28 February 2026, Glenn Diesen
0:00
DIESEN: Welcome back. We are joined by Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst uh to
0:06
discuss the war that has been launched [by Israel and America] against Iran. So, thank you for coming
0:11
on. Uh as an analyst, uh how solid do you think Trump’s intelligence has been
0:18
on Iran in terms of Iran’s capabilities? Uh, how they’re prepared to use those
0:23
capabilities, the I guess the likelihood of succeeding uh in this war. JOHNSON: Uh, [it] is one
0:29
of two things. Either the CIA lied to Trump
0:36
um about Iran’s capabilities and Trump believed it, or it’s possible the CIA
0:43
actually told Trump the truth and he ignored it. But, uh, and so I I unfortunately I’m not
0:50
privy to what the current current real world um briefings are. I would note
0:56
that a primary source for US human intelligence comes out of Israel through
1:03
what’s known as liaison reporting. And I’m basing, I base one of my
1:09
conclusions, off of the recent article by Seymour Hirsch regarding Iran.
1:15
It was, I mean, it was it was just rife with nonsense. But it was what he was
1:21
accurately reporting what he was being told. And one of the things [Hirsch was] told was that uh Iran’s ballistic
1:28
missile capability had been virtually wiped out. And I’m going [to say], you know, [it’s] absolutely not [true].
1:35
I’ve I’ve maintained all along that I think Iran’s ballistic missile capability right now exceeds 10,000
1:43
missiles. Uh you know, they’ve had 18 different varieties. And these are, you
1:48
know, underground shelters. They’re mobile launchers. mobile launchers are very very very
1:55
difficult to find and destroy and so and the storage units are way below ground
2:01
and so the United States has not unleashed uh the kind of bunker busters that would be required to try to seal up
2:08
those tunnels but [and] my understanding is there’s not just one entry and exit point, there are multiple entry and exit
2:14
points, so the the United States miscalculated, well, what Iran’s response would be. And
2:22
they were part of the US impression or belief, [which] is that there was a simmering
2:29
sea of disagreement with the Ayatollah and that
2:34
80% of the population opposed the Islamic regime,
2:40
and that all we had to do was just give it a slight push and the regime would
2:45
collapse. Well, uh, we neglected to learn the lesson that we, uh, that some of us
2:53
learned after the attacks on 9/11. That was viewed as an external attack, as a
2:58
surprise attack, as an illegal attack. And it united the American people, at least temporarily. Partisan dis
3:05
differences really largely disappeared there for a period of time. And then, you know, George W. Bush pissed that
3:12
opportunity away by starting a war with uh, Iraq. So what has happened now in
3:18
Iran, it’s unified the population in a way that uh that hasn’t been unified
3:23
since the attacks of last June. So this is uh this is another area of
3:28
miscalculation. A a third area of miscalculation that the United States was going to be
3:35
able to quickly eliminate the Iranian threat and quickly bring military
3:41
pressure that would force Iran to surrender. Becomes, oh, please stop. we give up.
3:47
They didn’t pay they didn’t pay attention to what Iran did with Iraq. You know, Iraq attacked Iran back in
3:53
1980. Nine-year war, 10-year war, went on hundreds of thousands of dead Iranians.
4:00
They didn’t give up. They continued to fight. Uh, and they fought till there was actually a negotiated settlement
4:06
brought about. That’s what they’re going to continue to do this time. Only this time, they they,
4:12
you know, they got some powerful leverage. They’ve now closed the straight of Hormuz. Good luck trying to get that open. We
4:19
already saw the the power of the US Navy who they’ve now got ships bottled up in
4:26
the Persian Gulf that can’t get out and the the main port in Bahrain has been
4:32
destroyed or significantly damaged. So this is uh you know Iran right now is
4:40
controlling 21 keeping 21% of the world’s oil from going out
4:45
and that’s that’s going to have e economic repercussions. China you know I think really anticipated this. They’ve
4:52
been buying up significant stores of oil over the last month. But uh I still
4:58
don’t think anybody anticipated that the United States and Israel would be so crazy as to start this war with uh Iran
5:07
sitting on a significant stash of ballistic missiles and drones and you
5:13
know they’re fighting in their own backyard. The United States is has to depend upon foreign bases and and when
5:21
they put these planes in these and in Saudi Arabia or Jordan they’re quite vulnerable.
5:27
and and and that’s where right now over the last 20, you know, this has been ongoing now for about 12 hours. I mean,
5:34
think about that. This is not like this has been a a week already. And in those
5:39
12 hours, Iran has done significant damage to uh to the US military presence in the
5:47
Persian Gulf to to the point now Saudi Arabia is declaring war. Syria is
5:53
declaring war. This is this is really rich. this this terrorist murderer Al-Sharra who’s dressed up now
6:01
in the Brooks Brother suit is I mean he’s he’s literally killed civilians
6:06
chopped their heads off, is is decrying the aggression of Iran.
6:13
I mean he’s just all he is is another whore of the West.
6:21
DIESEN: But it’s been a well a hell of a first day though as you said. Yeah, the attacks began early this morning and
6:28
uh and of course Iran has been hit pretty hard but Iran is also retaliating
6:35
in their big way. So uh you we’ve seen Jordan hits Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain has been hit a
6:43
lot especially in the evening now. Uh Israel as well they close as you said the straight of Hormuz. Uh again, it’s
6:51
too early to say, but um how do you see the war going so far? JOHNSON: I mean, as for a
6:57
first day u summary, well, it’s it’s going to go like it did in June with uh
7:04
Iran will continue to fire missiles and drones. They will use the older
7:10
stuff up, the one that’s less effective. They’ll use that up first and it’ll be used to draw out draw uh Israeli and US
7:19
air defense systems out because uh the one vulnerability both Israel and the
7:25
United States face is that for the the basis of the Iron Dome or the Patriot
7:33
Missile Battery or the THAAD is that they’ve got to fire at least two
7:38
missiles out in order to bring one incoming missile down or even one drone.
7:47
So, uh they’ve got the problem that they only produce 800 of those a year. I’ve
7:54
heard the number 700, but let’s just say it’s 800. So if they’re firing two at every
8:00
missile inbound, once um once Iran fires
8:06
400 missiles and drones, which they’re quite capable of doing, you’ve now
8:11
exhausted a year’s supply of Patriot or THAAD missiles. There even fewer.
8:18
There’s like only I think they only produce like 150 THADs on average. So the the the US and
8:26
Israel, if this progresses beyond th this week, and the only thing that would keep it from progressing beyond this
8:33
week is if Israel and the United States surrendered, said, “Okay, we give up. Let’s stop the
8:39
war. We’re suffering too many losses.” Well, that’s not going to happen. So the war will continue. the reserves, the
8:47
stores of the US and Israel will be depleted and this will become a war of attrition.
8:54
And at that point, Trump is going to I he’s got to either stick with it where he’s now broken his
9:01
promise, no new wars, no endless wars in the Middle East, uh or he’s going to have to figure out
9:08
some way to try to quote declare victory and pull out which will leave Israel uh
9:13
completely exposed and deservedly so. So I you know I um
9:22
there’s a possibility for a negotiated settlement but again the terms Iran’s
9:27
going to dictate the terms Iran’s terms will be all sanctions have got to be lifted.
9:34
lift the sanctions, you know, then we got something to talk about. But, uh, you know, closing down the straight of
9:39
Hormuz is a power play. They didn’t they didn’t wait, you know, they didn’t even
9:46
wait 10 hours to do it. They just immediately declared it shut.
9:52
DIESEN: Yeah, I was a bit uh surprised how quickly this was done. I mean, uh, we heard this from the Iranians that this
9:58
is how they would respond if they were attacked. So, so in terms of striking all the US bases in the region, uh
10:05
shutting down the straight of our moves, I mean all of this is what they said they would. So, I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised. But, uh
10:12
where can we es not we where can uh the escalation go from here on on both sides? I mean, what would the Iranians
10:19
look for? Would they could they begin to do they have a possibility of hitting
10:25
the US Navy or is it too far away? Uh how about the economic targets such as
10:31
or oil refineries in Saudi Arabia and such? Do or or would they wait and you
10:36
know hold off these targets uh based on how the Gulf States respond to the attacks? JOHNSON: If if the United States and
10:44
Israel attack oil terminals in Iran, Iran will take out oil terminals in
10:50
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, all of them. They’re not they won’t wait because they’re not going to get in a
10:56
situation where you get to destroy ours and we leave the others intact which service you. Oh no no no no no. Um the
11:04
the United States actually it has limited ability to escalate without
11:09
creating greater risk. You know, right now it’s got two aircraft carriers there and that one the Gerald Ford is well
11:17
overdue to have returned to home port and they’ve got major uh morale problems
11:22
on board apart apart from sewage problems they had. Uh and their their
11:29
role is right now to be basically defensive. The one that is potentially most vulnerable is the Abraham Lincoln
11:35
which is in the Arabian Sea. I don’t know what its precise location is, but there are reports that Iran has already
11:41
targeted with missiles. So, the the what’s curious is, you know, we’re into this now 12 hours, 13 hours uh and
11:49
there’s surely been US casualties, but the Trump administration is trying to keep the lid on those.
11:58
DIESEN: It’s um I am also surprised that they would decided to take this step because
12:04
it seems very unlikely to be able to succeed given um
12:10
the battlefield is uh yeah so confusing so many variables are outside of their
12:16
own control. Uh but um uh but but where where do you think the US will go from
12:22
here on though? Because I don’t think this is what they planned for. They obviously a lot of their Iranian missiles they seem to have gone through
12:29
with some ease. I’ve seen some videos uh which have been posted of uh Patriot
12:36
missiles just well firing into nothingness just missing their
12:41
targets. So something isn’t going as it should. So uh so so what does this leave
12:49
the United States if this turns out uh to to be a real failure? What what what
12:55
can the United States do besides if there’s not that many pathways to escalate? It can’t, you know, capitulate
13:02
either. Where from there? JOHNSON: Yeah. I mean, it it’s going to have they’re going to have to find a a way to
13:08
declare victory and leave because so let’s step back and say, does the United
13:15
States have the industrial capability to start mass-producing air defense
13:21
missiles to to keep the the batteries, the Patriot batteries and THAAD systems
13:27
supplied? The answer to that is no, absolutely not. Because another element in here is the Chinese restrictions on
13:34
rare earth minerals because some of those rare earth minerals go into these missile systems as well. So you got you
13:40
got a a a deficit there. Um can they deploy
13:47
more combat aircraft? They could, to do what? To try to carry out more strikes
13:52
inside Iran and give Iran a greater chance to shoot em down. What look what
13:58
we know from history and far be it for me to tell a history professor like
14:04
yourself this fact but we don’t have a single instance in where air power was
14:09
able to quote win a war you always had to put troops in on the ground um and
14:15
someone said well what about Hiroshima Nagasaki uh Nagasaki and it was uh you know you
14:24
could argue that war was coming to an end anyway Okay. Uh there were other s other signs that the Japanese were
14:30
willing to surrender. But apart, you know, Vietnam, North Korea, World War
14:35
II, Iraq, World War I, Iraq War II, Syria, there’s a limit to air power. And
14:43
so, yeah, you can you can destroy well and Gaza. Look at Gaza. I mean, Israel
14:49
has literally leveled the place. And yet it still can’t get in there and control
14:54
the ground because uh Hamas is there still fighting in the Palestinian Islamic jihad the pitch.
15:01
So uh what about deploying troops? Well, that’s a non-starter. One a ground invasion
15:08
how would they carry how I don’t even begin to contemplate how they could carry out a ground invasion that would
15:14
and the and the lines of communication that would be required to to sustain a
15:20
ground force of say a half a million men invading uh Iran plus we don’t really
15:26
have that many right now we got total army strength is like 472,000 worldwide
15:33
uh so there’s you know there the ultimate extremes s launching a nuclear attack,
15:39
but uh I don’t see Russia and China standing by and saying, “Oh, yeah, that’s okay. Let the Americans get it
15:44
out of their system.” So, I mean, this this has what we’re going to see is
15:50
within two weeks, as we saw last June,
15:55
United States and and Israel are going to run out of gas. They’re not going to be able to sustain the fight, whereas
16:03
Iran will be able to sustain it. They’ll be able to sustain missile launches that will be, you know, the these missile
16:11
launchers are in underground cities. They’re mobile and when they pop out and
16:16
move around the United States, you can’t just park you, it’d be ideal if you could park a drone overhead and say, “Okay, here’s one now.” And it’s XYZ
16:23
coordinate, but we weren’t even able to do that with the Houthies.
16:28
So, it it’s far more difficult, far more challenging with Iran.
16:34
…
MY COMMENT:
Those opinions are opposite to the ones that are being supplied by the Israel-U.S. empire’s media, which are designed so as to fool their public to believe that this Israeli-U.S. invasion is freeing the Iranian people from a tyranny they want to overthrow, such as the 2 March 2026 “Analysis by Nick Paton Walsh” on CNN, after the news that Ayatollah Khamenei is dead, which ‘news’ article contains, for examples, the following statements: “this moment of relief for many repressed Iranians” “His [Khamenei’s] removal has sparked celebrations in Tehran.” “For 47 years, a theocracy has turned into an autocracy and kleptocracy.” “its economy ravaged – by years of civil conflict.” “Is it possible a consensus emerges that, to endure, the autocracy must make peace with the US and the region?” “Reza Pahlavi, heir of the long-deposed shah [that the CIA’s coup installed in 1953, to replace Iran’s democratically elected leader], cannot swan into Tehran and pick up the reins without risking an angry IRGC [instead of an outraged Iranian public] trying to kill him.” “Trump’s … allergy to protracted military involvement simply reinforce this risk [and] … has … kept his goals slim and achievable.” and “The superior technology, intelligence and firepower of the United States and Israel enabled them to conjure a swift and simple solution to their enduring Iran problem.”
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