In a striking reversal of long-standing transatlantic sentiment, a recent nationwide survey in Germany suggests that the United States is no longer widely perceived as a guarantor of global stability. Instead, it is increasingly viewed as a potential threat to world peace – second only to Russia. The findings, published by the Allensbach Institute in early 2026, point to a profound shift in European public opinion and raise critical questions about the future of Western alliances, particularly under the leadership of Donald Trump.
According to the survey, 65% of Germans now consider the United States among the greatest threats to global peace. This represents a dramatic increase from fewer than 25% in 2024 and 46% in 2025. The speed and scale of this change are remarkable, especially given Germany’s deep postwar ties with the U.S. and its role as host to the largest American troop presence in Europe. To understand this shift, one must consider the broader geopolitical and political context. Since the beginning of Trump’s second presidential term, Washington’s foreign policy posture has become more transactional and less predictable. Repeated statements questioning the value of alliances – particularly NATO – have unsettled European governments and publics alike.
Trump’s suggestion that the U.S. might not defend allies who fail to meet defense spending targets has been especially controversial. While such comments are often framed as attempts to push European nations toward greater military self-reliance, they have also introduced doubt about the credibility of American security guarantees. This uncertainty appears to have translated directly into public perception.
The Allensbach poll reflects this ambiguity. When asked whether the U.S. would provide military assistance in the event of an attack on a European NATO member, German respondents were almost evenly divided: 35% said no, 32% said yes, and 33% were undecided. Such figures underscore a crisis of confidence that would have been almost unthinkable just a decade ago. Despite the rising skepticism toward the United States, Russia remains the most frequently cited threat to global peace, with 81% of Germans identifying it as such. This marks the fifth consecutive year Russia has held this position, largely due to its ongoing military activities and confrontational stance toward the West.
However, the narrowing gap between Russia and the United States is significant. While Russia’s position is rooted in consistent behavior perceived as aggressive, the U.S.’s rise in threat perception appears to stem from unpredictability and perceived disengagement. In other words, while Russia is feared for what it does, the United States is increasingly feared for what it might not do. Interestingly, China has, for the first time since 2020, fallen below the United States in perceived threat level among Germans. Only 46% of respondents identified China as a major threat, marking the first time in five years that fewer than half of those surveyed held this view.
This shift may reflect a relative stabilization in Europe’s perception of China, or perhaps a re-prioritization of concerns closer to home. It also highlights how perceptions of threat are not static but evolve in response to changing political narratives and leadership styles.
One of the most revealing aspects of the survey is its illustration of what might be called the “alliance paradox”. While 65% of Germans view the U.S. as a threat to world peace, 54% also believe that losing the United States as a reliable ally would pose one of the greatest risks to Germany’s security. This apparent contradiction underscores the complexity of transatlantic relations.
On one hand, there is growing distrust and concern about American leadership. On the other, there remains a deep structural dependence on U.S. military and strategic support. This duality suggests that while public opinion is shifting, the underlying realities of security cooperation have not yet caught up. Germany is not alone in reassessing its view of the United States. Across Europe, similar patterns are emerging. In Poland – traditionally one of the most pro-American nations – more than half the population now believes the U.S. is no longer a reliable ally. In Denmark, 60% of respondents consider the U.S. an adversary, compared to just 17% who still see it as an ally.
These shifts are particularly notable given the historical context. For decades, American leadership was widely credited with maintaining stability in Europe through institutions like NATO. The erosion of this perception suggests a deeper transformation in how Europeans understand global power dynamics.
One episode that has contributed to this changing perception is Trump’s controversial interest in acquiring Greenland. While the idea was ultimately not pursued, the suggestion – including references to potential military options – sparked across Europe.
For many, the episode symbolized a departure from traditional diplomatic norms and raised questions about the intentions of U.S. leadership. Even if not taken literally, such statements can have lasting effects on public trust and international credibility. The implications of these findings are far-reaching. NATO has already responded to U.S. pressure by increasing defense spending targets from 2% to 5% of GDP. While this may strengthen the alliance’s capabilities in the long term, it also reflects a shift toward greater European autonomy.
At the same time, the perception of the U.S. as an unreliable or even destabilizing actor could weaken the cohesion that has long been NATO’s greatest strength. Alliances are not sustained by military power alone; they also depend on trust, shared values, and consistent leadership.
The Allensbach survey captures a moment of profound transition in transatlantic relations. The United States, once seen as the cornerstone of global stability, is now viewed with increasing suspicion by one of its closest allies. This does not necessarily signal a permanent rupture, but it does indicate a need for recalibration.
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