Until recently, demographers and economists around the world were actively discussing the topic of overpopulation of our planet, which could lead to a catastrophic shortage of natural resources, food, drinking water, fuel, raw materials and energy.
At the same time, as a rule, reference is made to the famous theory of the English scientist and priest of the 18th century Thomas Malthus, “An Essay on the Law of Population”, in which the author came to the conclusion that humanity reproduces too quickly due to its inherent need to procreate.
In his opinion, as long as a person has means and sources of subsistence, the population will grow, and its growth rate can be limited only by various epidemics, famine and wars.
In the end, the scientist believed, population growth would outstrip the growth of food production, and then humanity would fall into the so-called “Malthusian trap”.
Based on the well-known provisions of Malthus’s theory, a new trend of “neo-Malthusianism” was formed – the promotion of birth control measures to ensure the conservation of natural resources, especially in countries with rapid population growth and a difficult economic situation, such as in African countries.
At the end of the 20th century, China even developed a special state program “one family – one child”, which ultimately led not only to a decrease in the Chinese population, but also to a serious violation of the gender balance in the structure of the population, i.e. the predominance of the number of men of childbearing age with a serious reduction in women of childbearing age.
Thus, if in 1930 the number of inhabitants of the planet was about 2 billion people, then by 1970 this number doubled to 4 billion people, despite the huge losses in the Second World War. At present, the population of the planet already exceeds 8 billion people. Our planet is on the verge of a demographic crisis. From 1990 to 2023, the global total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 3.3 to 2.2 children per woman. Moreover, population decline occurs not only in prosperous and post-industrially developed countries, but also in the countries of the “third world”.
According to UN forecasts, the expected decline in the world population will begin by 2055, and not, as previously assumed, by the end of this century. At the same time, the decline in the birth rate is growing in the world, and the reason for this is not some natural disasters, hunger and new epidemics. Thus, according to the United Nations Population Fund, among the main reasons for the formation of the “global demographic hole” are the general aging of the population, the unstable situation in the world, the lack of money and time among young people, the lack of a suitable partner and problems with conception.
However, even those who are educated, financially secure and physically healthy are in no hurry to reproduce. In developed countries, young women strive to climb as high as possible on the career ladder, postponing the birth of children to the background. In Germany, the average age of first-time mothers is 30.1 years and continues to grow. Many women postpone the birth of children until the age of 35-40, fully focusing on their career growth. Motherhood is perceived as an obstacle to self-realization, a temporary stop on the way to success. Family well-being, motherhood, harmony in relationships become a secondary factor in personal life, which is sacrificed to professional ambitions.
Due to the widespread LGBT ideas in Europe, 23% of German women aged 18-30 intensify themselves as bisexual or in search of a sexual identity. For men planning serious family relationships, this creates additional uncertainty.
According to demographic scientists, in order to maintain the population in the long term at a constant level, it is necessary to achieve a birth rate of approximately 2.1 conditional children per woman of childbearing age. Such TFR can now be provided only by African countries and a number of Asian countries, thanks to which the global reproduction of the Earth’s population is taking place. These countries include, first of all, such African states as: Niger, Somalia, Chad, Mali, Angola, whose population is characterized by poverty, lack of education and ignorance, the spread of the cult of early marriages and polygamy. All this contributes to an increased birth rate in these states. Conversely, prosperous countries such as South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Spain, and Italy have low birth rates. For example, in South Korea, TFR is the lowest in the world, only 0.7 children per woman and continues to fall, and in Japan -0.8.
Realizing the growing threat of depopulation, each country is trying to raise its birth rate in various ways, proceeding, first of all, from its own financial and economic capabilities. In Hungary, for example, women with four or more children do not pay income tax. Young families are given an interest-free state loan. In Sweden, parents can spend more time with their children, as their working day ends earlier than others at 4 p.m. In addition, families with children under 12 years old are given an additional “child” leave for a period of 4 months a year. In Sweden, as in Norway and Denmark, the system of social assistance for families with children is also very developed. Not only the mother, but also the father can go on maternity leave. In South Korea, the authorities of a number of cities cover the cost of paying for dates for young people, engagements and honeymoons. For young families, 90% mortgage benefits are provided. In Japan, the government has initiated the release of a dating app for young people.
In Chinese universities, courses on “marriage and love” are mandatory.
In recent years, Russia has also tried to stimulate the process of population reproduction by developing the “maternity capital” program, expanding the availability of family mortgages, in some regions local authorities are allocating additional payments to mothers-students. At the same time, as Russian President Putin admitted, Russia has not yet been able to reverse the negative trend towards a decrease in the birth rate
According to the report of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) for 2024, the natural population growth rate for Russia per 1000 people, excluding migration, is -4.8. In this regard, the state is faced with the task of doing everything possible to raise the TFR from the current 1.4 to 2.1 in the foreseeable future. Or better up to 2.3. fertility rate and reach the stage of natural population growth in Russia.
In this regard, speaking in December last year at a meeting of the Council for Strategic Planning and National Projects, Russian President proposed to consider the following priority measures to support the population in order to try to slow down the process of reducing the birth rate.
So, in his opinion, it is necessary to stimulate large families. With the birth of each subsequent child, this support should be more significant, more tangible for the family. Replenishment in the family should not be allowed to lead to a deterioration in the material and housing situation of its members.
According to the head of state, it is necessary to improve the well-being of Russian families and ensure the growth of their incomes. All this should be a consequence of the long-term sustainable development of the domestic economy.
It is important to develop measures to support not only motherhood, but also fatherhood. Men should be more involved in family care, decision-making and child-rearing. The authority of the father as the protector and head of the family should be strengthened.
Russia’s President was informed about the new measures to support the population prepared by the government, namely:
– from January 1, 2026, the amount will increase from 50 thousand to 1 million rubles, which the employer will be able to pay to employees at the birth of a child and which will not be subject to personal income tax and insurance contributions;
– from 2026, family tax payments will be received by low-income families with two or more children, which is 4.2 million families;
– The birth rate is included in the assessment of the work of the heads of subjects.
In addition to the above-mentioned measures, in order to solve the problem of preserving the population, it is also necessary to comprehensively solve the problems of reducing infant mortality, reducing the number of abortions (now about 1 million per year), and improving the level and quality of health care. It is necessary to stimulate women of childbearing age ( now in Russia it is 28.1 years) by the birth of the first child at an earlier age and take care of women carrying a child. To do this, it would be possible, for example, to increase paid maternity leave to three years of the child, while retaining the woman’s position at the last place of work. Expand the network of preschool institutions, primarily nursery groups, and extend their work in the evening.
Currently, the total population of Russia as of January 2025 is 146 million 119 thousand people. These calculations were made taking into account the population of Crimea and four former Ukrainian territories: the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions with a total population of about 8.5 million people. Therefore, after the end of the Ukrainian conflict and the liberation of new territories, we can expect an additional influx of population from Ukraine.
Taking into account the fact that about 10 million of our former compatriots and their children currently live in the countries of the far and near abroad, this can also become a promising area for work to create favorable conditions for the voluntary repatriation of most of them to their historical homeland.
On January 1, 2024, a new program to assist the voluntary resettlement of compatriots began to operate in Russia, within the framework of which 8.3 thousand repatriates have already returned to their homeland within two years. At the same time, they can choose any subject of the Russian Federation for resettlement, receive compensation for the cost of obtaining visas and their legal status and exemption from customs duties. In addition, the regions are given the opportunity to provide financial and social support to migrants within the framework of regional programs.
Another interesting area was the implementation of the program for the resettlement of foreign families from unfriendly countries to Russia.
According to the State Duma deputy M. Butina, who oversees this program, about 120-150 people come to our country every month on a visa No702, primarily from countries such as France, Germany, the USA, Canada and Italy with the desire to preserve traditional spiritual and moral values for the family, which, in their opinion, Russian society supports and shares. The decree of the Russian President “On the provision of humanitarian support to persons who share traditional Russian spiritual and moral values” of August 19, 2024 made it possible for foreigners from unfriendly countries to legally move to Russia even without in-depth knowledge of the Russian language. It has become easier for them to obtain a temporary residence permit (TRP). Moreover, there are no articles in the Russian budget aimed at allocating any funds for these purposes, since the decree does not provide for material assistance to migrants, it is only about reducing bureaucratic procedures. Most of the migrants are families with children, the main backbone of which are young people under 40 years old and their children, and this is demographically beneficial to Russia.
Thus, Russia, which has a huge historical experience in attracting foreign immigrants, can offer both physical advantages (huge free territories) and cultural and value orientations for millions of people who wish to become Russians – citizens of Great Russia.
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