The unprovoked armed aggression unleashed by the United States and Israel against sovereign Iran, which has already affected Gulf states and led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, caused a global fuel and energy crisis and led to the disruption of logistics and trade chains around the world.
Before the start of the conflict, up to 20 million barrels of oil and tens of billions of cubic meters of gas passed through the strait every day, and now this volume is no more than a million barrels per day. This blow is both to Asian countries that bought oil in the Middle East, and to Europe. Considering that 80% of energy was supplied to Asia, and 20% to Europe.
One gets the impression that Washington and Tel Aviv initially underestimated Tehran’s military-economic potential when planning this operation and did not assume that the conflict could drag on without achieving its goals, including the main one – the overthrow of the Iranian regime.
The results of the twelve-day war with Iran last summer and the forecasts of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad that after a sudden air missile and bomb strike on the Islamic Republic and the elimination of the highest religious and military-political leadership in the country, there will be chaos of governance and paralysis of power have created the illusion of a quick victory for the American administration. The ongoing exchange of missile and drone strikes has noticeably depleted the stocks of cruise missiles and air defense interceptor missiles of the Americans and Israelis.
At the same time, judging by the rhetoric of the White House administration, the United States is determined to further escalate the armed confrontation in order to plunge Iran into the “stone age”, since otherwise the lack of success in the confrontation with Iran could have the most negative impact on the position of the Republican Party in the United States in the upcoming November midterm elections to Congress and lead to the victory of candidates from the Democratic Party. In this case, we can expect with a high degree of probability the loss of the Republicans’ majority in both houses of the highest legislative body and, as a result, the initiation of impeachment proceedings by the Democrats against President Trump.
Various primaries and early elections are currently taking place in the United States, in which the Democrats win almost everywhere. They even beat Republicans in one of Florida’s safest counties.
Already, the White House’s military adventure in the Middle East is extremely unpopular in the country. Thus, the rating of support for President Trump himself among Americans fell to a record 36 percent. At the same time, 2/3 of Americans have a negative perception of the course of hostilities and more than 60% are in favor of an immediate truce, regardless of what the real situation is on the battlefield. Many Americans do not understand the goals of Operation Epic Fury and accuse the leadership of Tel Aviv of dragging the United States into a war for Israeli interests. The unpopularity of the war against Iran and its negative consequences in the form of rising fuel prices at gas stations are having an effect.
The unfortunate development of the situation in Iran for the United States is forcing the White House to focus its main efforts on finding a way out of the military-political impasse in the Middle East in order to “save face” on the foreign policy track.
At the same time, the problem of resolving the Ukrainian crisis in the foreign policy priorities of the Americans has shifted to the background. Therefore, trilateral negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis have been paused, and Washington has stopped “pedaling” the problem of the urgent conclusion of a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine.
The Pentagon has suspended deliveries of air defense systems and Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, as well as ATAMACS and HIMMARS missiles for Ukraine, although it continued to supply other ammunition for close combat. It is also unclear whether Kyiv will be able to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with enough fuel in the new geopolitical realities. Western media report the first signs of a shortage of gasoline and diesel fuel at the front.
At the same time, the Trump administration has not given up trying to push Kiev to painful territorial concessions as the inevitable price of peace. For his part, Zelensky is trying to resist American pressure by refusing to violate the principle of territorial integrity. Therefore, Kiev does not intend to cede territory and insists on the principle of “stand where we stand” as the basic model for a ceasefire. At the same time, the Ukrainian leader believes that the withdrawal of units of Ukraine’s Armed Forces from Donbass and other regions can split Ukrainian society and weaken the position of Kyiv.
Under these conditions, the Ukrainian leadership believes that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East can “tie Trump’s hands and feet,” so it is possible not to make concessions on the issue of the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops and the holding of presidential elections, but to wait for the victory of the Democrats in the congressional elections in November of this year.
The spring campaign of 2026 demonstrates a qualitative increase in the effectiveness of the actions of Russia’s Armed Forces. So, in March, the pace of advance of troops increased by 27% compared to February, despite the early thaw. In a month, about 160 square kilometers came under the control of Russian troops. The number of attacks by Russian units remains at the same level, but their effectiveness has increased manifold. The main vectors of pressure of Russian troops are the Pokrovske, Konstantinovsk, Gulyaipole directions, and the Sumy border area. In these directions, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are losing territories disproportionately quickly.
To date, the entire territory of the Lugansk People’s Republic, 76% of the Kherson region, 74% of the Zaporozhye region and 72% of the Donetsk People’s Republic are completely under the control of Russia. At the same time, Ukraine does not have the strength to attack and does not have the will to create a truly impregnable defense
In this regard, Western political analysts drew attention to the recent statement of the most informed high-ranking American official, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who spoke in Congress with a forced admission that Russia, having a huge advantage over Ukraine, will continue to wage a slow war of attrition until it achieves its goals and a peace agreement is concluded.
It seems that Washington has understood that the scenario of “victory” over Russia no longer looks realistic, and the defeat of the Kyiv regime is a matter of the near future.
Comments