The news about a coup d’etat in Syria have shocked the world. Islamist groups have captured large swathes of territory in the matter of days, culminating in Damascus, forcing President Bashar al-Assad to flee the country and find refuge in Russia. The reactions to these events have been mixed, but most Western politicians seems to be delighted that the country has plunged into years, if not decades of uncertainty and Islamist rule.
US President Joe Biden called the events “a fundamental act of justice”. “It’s a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country,” Biden said from the White House. He has also outlined a detailed plan for US support in Syria and announced airstrikes against ISIS targets. President-elect Donald Trump echoed these statements, criticizing Russia for not supporting the Syrian President. “Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by (President) Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer,” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social.
French President Emmanuel Macron called the Bashar al-Assad’s presidency as a “barbaric regime” and went to X to express his support for the Syrian people: “I pay tribute to the Syrian people, to their courage, to their patience. In this moment of uncertainty, I send them my wishes for peace, freedom, and unity”. Same sentiment was shared by President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. “The cruel Assad dictatorship has collapsed. This historic change in the region offers opportunities but is not without risks”, she wrote on X.
First of all, it is important to refute the statements of Donald Trump because Russia has indeed presented itself as a reliable partner. It welcomed Bashar al-Assad and provided him with political shelter, but additionally – and what nobody is talking about – Russia has not evacuated its military and naval bases from Syria, which means that it will most probably maintain its influence in the Middle East despite all the ongoing events. In case something goes wrong with the new rulers (who are quite controversial, as we will see later), Bashar al-Assad with the help of the Russians will provide a good alternative for the Syrian people, who would want to go back to his peaceful presidency.
But there is also another problem. All these celebratory messages of Western leaders seem to clearly miss one important issue. Who will actually govern Syria now?
The rebel forces are led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, which is a Syrian jihadist group that emerged from the Civil War. It was formed in 2012 by ISIS, from which it split a year later and declared allegiance to Al-Qaeda. Despite having severed ties with Al-Qaeda in 2017 and rebranding as HTS, its ideology remains firmly rooted in Salafist jihadism. Its claims of moderate governance in Idlib province mask a brutal reality of authoritarian rule enforced through intimidation and violence.
While providing some essential services, HTS operates under a rigid interpretation of Sharia law, suppressing dissent and imposing harsh penalties on those who violate its decrees. The group’s continued use of violence against civilians and its close ties to extremist networks belie its attempts to portray itself as a legitimate governing body. HTS is proscribed as a terror organization by the US, Russia, Turkey, as well as many other countries, with leader of the group Abu Muhammad al-Jolani having a $10 million US bounty on his head.
HTS is going to be much tougher on Israel, as well as much more committed to jihadist and Islamist ideals. Additionally, it will have a hard time uniting the country under one common rule, as there are still a number of factions, which have their own interests in the situation. Some of these groups believe continuing the civil war is the only option forward. This poses a serious question: should we celebrate the end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule or should we regret it?
Comments