Bolivia Is Shifting To The Right

The country is facing internal changes and a possible change of international partners.

On Sunday, October 19, the presidential run-off was held in Bolivia. In general, it was already clear that the 20-year rule of the left, represented by the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, had suffered a crushing defeat. In the previous round, which was a general election, only two representatives of this party entered the Congress.

And two right-wing candidates, , Rodrigo Paz Pereira and Jorge Fernando “Tuto” Quiroga Ramirez, competed in the run-off for the presidency. Both have been directly involved in big-time politics for many years – Rodrigo is the son of Jaime Paz Zamora, who was president of the country from 1989 to 1993, and Jorge was vice president and then interim president from 2001 to 2002. after dictator Hugo Banzer resigned for health reasons. In their programs, both advocated reducing government subsidies and social programs, as well as more active cooperation with the United States.

Interestingly enough, according to polls before the first round of elections, Paz Pereira trailed in the tail, behind the oligarch Doria Medina and Jorge Quiroga, but eventually took 31%. He has now gained 54.6%, while Quiroga has 45.4%. Observers note that Pereira managed to snatch victory with the promise of low-interest loans, tax benefits and jobs creation. These are preliminary data, and according to current legislation, the final results to be announced in a week. However it is unlikely that the balance of votes will change dramatically. Pereira has already been congratulated on his victory by the US State Department, as well as representatives of the Latin American right—wing forces – Pinochet-adherer Jose Antonio Kast from Chile, Keiko Fujimori from Peru and Argentine President Javier Milei, calling this electoral success “liberation from socialism.”

It should be noted that in the latest elections Rodrigo Paz Pereira represented Christian Democratic Party (PDC), whereas in the early 2000s, he ran for the Revolutionary Left Movement (MIR), member of the Socialist International. Moreover, at his time, he managed to be a member of Social Democratic Movement (MDS) and the Civil Society liberal coalition, which can be characterized both as ideological unscrupulousness and political flexibility.

The newly elected president graduated from the American University in Washington and represented Bolivia in the WTO, which can serve as a marker of his pro-Western and pro-globalist views. After the victory, he immediately announced his desire to establish contact with Donald Trump. At the same time, he rhetorically advocates the development of a common Latin American market. But given the Trump administration’s active stance on the region, which has been described locally as the Monroe Doctrine 2.0, this development does not exclude the active involvement of the United States.

A more alarming signal is his previous statement on the review of lithium contracts concluded by the current government of Luis Arce with China and Russia. Washington will certainly be interested in eliminating such competition for access to critically important minerals. But this may also affect other interests of Russia and China in Bolivia. It is unlikely that Pereira will insist on closing the Rosatom Nuclear Technology and Research Center in El Alto, since Bolivia itself needs it as a high-tech production facility, but a subsidiary of Rosatom has a lithium contract on behalf of Russia. There have already been signals of outside interference aimed at disrupting the implementation of the agreement on the launch of a lithium carbonate plant. As a result, the Bolivian Ministry of Energy postponed the final approval of the project until the end of the election cycle.

Among other political risks is Bolivia’s participation in international associations. The most likely outcome may be the country’s withdrawal from the ALBA-TCP bloc, which is considered the only leftist alliance in Latin America and the Caribbean. The axis of the bloc is Venezuela, Cuba (the initiators of its creation), Nicaragua and Bolivia, but it also includes a number of small Caribbean island States – Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia and Grenada. The United States is already slowly rocking this alliance by exerting diplomatic pressure. The day before, the head of the US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), Admiral Alvin Holsey, visited Grenada, where the Americans requested the deployment of a special American radar, as well as Antigua and Barbuda. The leadership of Antigua and Barbuda openly refused to provide its territory for the US military, while Grenada responded evasively about the need to respect sovereignty and take into account national security issues. Since Honduras and Ecuador were previously members of the ALBA alliance, but withdrew after the regime change, there is reason to believe that Bolivia will follow suit, especially if the United States promises something substantial in return.

The BRICS Club may also feel a change of course in Bolivia. Although the presidency of right-wing politician Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil had no effect on bilateral relations with Russia and its participation in the BRICS, Argentina’s reluctance to join the alliance after Javier Milei came to power indicates that any scenarios are possible. Moreover, this is an informal association with no charter or strict obligations.

However, for Pereira himself, domestic politics will be a serious challenge. Numerous trade unions have already promised mass protests if he starts curtailing social programs. In addition, the country has a social polarization – conventionally, the right and whites dominate the plains (where oil and gas reserves are concentrated), while the Indigenous population, oriented towards leftist views, is in the Andean highlands. The economic imbalance is now also directly related to the geographical terrain. The newly elected president will have to prevent the split from deepening, especially given the promise to arrest former President Evo Morales, who has the support of the Indigenous population. Harsh measures against political opponents can lead to a repeat of guerrilla warfare, which is a kind of norm for many Latin American countries.

Given his previous career, Rodrigo Paz Pereira is likely to try to act carefully to reduce the degree of political tension and find ways out of the crisis. At the same time, populist rhetoric will be followed. In Congress, one way or another, he will have to cooperate with the “New Unity Bloc (Bloque de Unidad) for Liberty and Democracy” (LIBRE) of his recent opponent Jorge Quiroga. Therefore, in his decisions, he will refer to the consensus of the majority, which corresponds to democratic procedures. Whether the politicians of the main leading coalitions will be pragmatic enough to preserve the achievements of their leftist predecessors and not return to the status of a US client, we will see after the presidential inauguration in November.