Public Safety In Mexico (I)

Amid the steady increase in global military spending over the past decade, which has surpassed $2.4 trillion according to SIPRI, Latin American countries stand out as a notable exception. Since the 1960s, the region has maintained its status as a nuclear-free zone, marked by a minimal number of armed conflicts between states. Remarkably, in 2023, the total defense spending of South and Central American countries amounted to only $65.4 billion, accounting for just 2.7% of global military expenditures during this period. Nonetheless, the absence of wars and modest military budgets does not prevent Latin America from being the region with the highest rates of violent deaths; estimates suggest that it accounts for up to one-third of all murders committed worldwide. According to research center InSight Crime, a total of 117,492 people were killed in Latin America in 2023. This phenomenon is described in academic literature as the “security paradox,” which illustrates the juxtaposition of virtually no armed conflicts in the region with an extraordinarily high level of violence within Latin American nations.

Notably, the core issues regarding national security in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) arise more from internal problems rather than external threats to territorial integrity. These challenges include the activities of transnational criminal organizations and drug cartels and the inability of authorities to maintain control over certain parts of sovereign territories and land borders. It is more appropriate to refer to public security challenges in Central and South American countries, as these are chronic and shape key trends in both domestic and foreign policy developments within the region.

The issues of crime and drug trafficking in LAC countries are attributable to a wide range of factors. They largely stem from socio-economic problems, associated with high levels of income inequality and social polarization, which lead to the marginalization of vulnerable populations and their involvement in criminal activities. Another factor is geographical proximity to the United States, which is not only the most vital trade, economic, and political partner for LAC countries but also the largest consumer of illegal drugs globally, thereby perpetuating their production in Latin American nations. Finally, the abnormally high murder rates are significantly influenced by regional specifics, including the persistent authoritarian nature of political cultures in Latin American states, as well as a traditional inclination among locals to resolve conflicts through violence.

Mexico, the second-largest country in Latin America by population and economic size, exemplifies how the combination of these factors creates a complex array of public security problems. No presidential administration has fully resolved these issues up to the present day.

In September 2024, a new wave of escalation occurred in the northwestern state of Sinaloa, linked to the conflict between two factions of the Sinaloa drug cartel, which experts assess has effectively controlled the state and several border crossings with the U.S. for decades. Shootouts in Sinaloa’s capital, Culiacán, a city of 800,000 residents, and the blockade of residential areas by armed groups from rival factions have paralyzed the local economy, as residents fear leaving their homes. These events resulted in the deaths of over 140 individuals, most of whom were innocent bystanders, a sharp rise in kidnappings, disruptions in food supply, and other humanitarian consequences that have brought the situation in Culiacán and its surroundings close to catastrophic levels. A vivid testament to the central and state authorities’ inability to control the situation was the cancellation of Culiacán’s Independence Day celebration on September 15.

The occurrences in Sinaloa added to the ongoing armed confrontations between Mexican drug cartels over territorial control and trafficking routes. Recent Mexican history has more egregious examples of criminal impunity; for instance, in 2019, following an attempt by the National Guard and the Mexican army to arrest Ovidio Guzmán López, one of the leaders of the Sinaloa cartel, the militants launched a series of attacks on Culiacán’s civilian infrastructure and took residents of a neighborhood hostage, prompting President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to personally order Guzmán López’s release “to protect civilians.”

These examples reflect a deep public safety crisis that has persisted since the early 2000s, when homicide rates and the scale of cartel activities began to rise exponentially. In only six years of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidency (2018–2024), research center TResearch reported over 192,000 registered murders in Mexico – a figure comparable to combat losses sustained by a nation at war. The term “war” has been regularly used to describe public security conditions in Mexico since President Felipe Calderón declared a “war on drugs” in 2006. After 18 years, the outcome of this “war” remains unresolved, and internal security continues to be a critical challenge for President Claudia Sheinbaum, who became the first woman president in Mexican history, winning the election in June 2024 and assuming office on October 1. The significance of security issues is underscored by sociological data; a 2024 poll by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) revealed that 65% of Mexican women and 52% of men reported feeling unsafe due to the country’s rising crime rate. Another survey in 2023 indicated that 67% of the populace identified the lack of safety on the streets as Mexico’s primary concern.

to be continued