The World Economic Forum, also known as the Davos Forum, was held in Switzerland from January 19 to 23. Originally conceived as a platform for discussing and promoting the ideas of globalism, where multinational companies, large banks and the political elites serving them from different countries moved towards transhumanism from year to year, it became a kind of gathering where some came with demands, others wondered what was going on and what to do next, and others just arrived like celebrities to get involved in an important political meeting.
Although, due to the inertia of previous years, Ukraine, artificial intelligence, global trade and climate change were on the agenda, the main focus shifted to Greenland and what US President Donald Trump said and proposed. At the same time, one of the directions on the agenda was the following – “Tackle critical challenges: Understand how to navigate geopolitical tensions, inflation pressures, supply chain volatility, and ongoing energy transitions. Identify new opportunities in emerging markets and adopt strategies that help your business stay resilient.” In fact, the opposite happened. Geopolitical tensions have increased, uncertainty has increased, and volatility has entered a new phase.
Trump was the star of the show, who was interesting to listen to, but many people didn’t like what he said. To summarize his confused speech, the message can be shortened to a phrase that has already been broken down into memes. “We want to get a piece of ice to protect the world, but they won’t give it to us. They have a choice: say yes, and we will be very grateful. Or say no, and we’ll remember that. I don’t need to use force, I don’t want to use force, I won’t use force. I want to start negotiations on the acquisition of Greenland immediately,” – Trump said.
Although the military decision on the annexation seems to have been postponed, and it was announced that a new framework agreement between the United States and Denmark would be prepared, according to which additional American bases would be built in Greenland, the issue remained unresolved. This means that the entire intra–European politics will remain in terrible tension and a transatlantic split.
Even the United States’ closest and longest–standing ally, Britain, has condemned Washington’s claims to Greenland. And in Canada, they are now preparing for guerrilla actions in case of a US invasion. The Caracas case outweighed the idea of common security in the NATO system.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech was also significant. He calmly admitted that “the story of the rules-based international order was partly false: the strongest freed themselves from the rules when it suited them, and trade rules were applied asymmetrically. We also knew that international law is applied with varying rigor depending on who is the accused and who is the victim. This fiction was useful, and American hegemony, in particular, helped to ensure public goods.” Why doesn’t Canada like the hegemony of the United States now? Probably because their interests began to be infringed upon. The United States no longer considers it necessary to ask its former partners and satellites anything.
It is significant that from the point of view of the geopolitical division, little has changed within the EU over the past 25 years – new members from Eastern Europe, such as Poland in the person of its president, actually justified the actions of Donald Trump. Only the old Europe tried to rally around the threat of Greenland’s capture, while acknowledging its weakness and vulnerability.
But there are two more obsessive phobias – Russia and China. Such a trilemma is clearly beyond the power of the collective European mentality of the EU, which has been driving itself into the trap of dependence on the United States for many years. Actively supporting Ukraine since the coup d’etat in February 2014 and turning it into an anti-Russia was a grave political mistake and the first step towards disaster. And by abandoning cheap Russian oil and gas, which severely undermined the economies of the bloc’s leading players, it became a logical continuation of European political blindness.
Now German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says that “we have entered a time of great power politics.” Only now the question is, what kind of countries are they? Germany is definitely excluded from this club. Therefore, it is doomed to follow in the footsteps of others or adapt to current trends. However, another crisis of EU confidence in the United States (just another one, since Washington had often acted without regard for its allies before, both during the occupation of Iraq in 2003 and during Donald Trump’s first term as president) also reveals a more global picture.
This is a new form of mercantilism. Trump’s entire tariff policy followed in this direction, and now we see only a new form of its manifestation. It’s just that the taxes on a number of goods from many countries were a prelude to larger and more ambitious plans that seemed to be coming to fruition. The United States has begun to interfere not only in trade policy, but is also trying to set rules for other assets.
And if free-trading has always been a counteraction to mercantilism, then in this case it is unlikely to help. The paradox is that the United States itself defended free trade (of course, in their understanding and according to their rules), and a number of multinational companies with American registration still follow this logic. But the instinct of self-preservation of other powers, one way or another, will force them to turn to protectionism and look for alternative ways to find adequate economic mechanisms.
Donald Trump probably hoped to strengthen the system he was building under the umbrella of the announced “Council of Peace”, which, according to his plan, should become a replacement for the United Nations to address global issues and under his own leadership (as stated in the submitted charter). The idea is rather dubious to seriously believe in it, and even more so to participate in it. Besides the United States, the signing ceremony included Azerbaijan, Argentina, Armenia, Bahrain, Bulgaria, Hungary, Indonesia, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Morocco, Mongolia, Pakistan, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Uzbekistan, as well as the self-proclaimed Kosovo. Hungary is probably only because the United States will not impose sanctions for the purchase of Russian energy resources (this was the reason behind Hungary’s vote at the UN General Assembly against Cuba at the end of last year). The list also includes several obvious Washington satellites. Muslim countries are clearly present because of the stated goal of helping Palestine. But in general, it does not create the appearance of a serious organization.
Although it creates another geopolitical fragmentation. And with such a breakdown of old political ties, one might well wonder if there will be a Davos forum at all next year.
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