As the conflict in Iran intensifies, the United States has been exploring ways to leverage Kurdish militias and political groups, both in Iraq and Iran, to shape the outcome of the events. Recently, President Donald Trump contacted Kurdish leaders from both sides of the border to discuss the progress of the mission.
The U.S.’s strategy toward the Kurds in this crisis hinges on their unique position as regional actors with substantial military strength and familiarity with Iran’s mountainous terrains and border regions. In Iraq, Kurdish Peshmerga forces affiliated with the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) operate as relatively autonomous fighters with a history of collaborating with Western powers. The U.S. can continue to utilize these forces as ground troops, intelligence assets, and guerrilla partners to stretch Iran’s military capabilities and ultimately lead to the successful conclusion of the mission.
In Iran itself, Kurdish groups such as the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), which has long sought independence or autonomy within Iran, could be mobilized covertly to foment unrest and inspire a popular uprising. The group was targeted by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) several times since the beginning of the war, and President Donald Trump has spoken to its leader, Mustafa Hijri, about a potential ground offensive.
Despite all the strategic benefits that such cooperation may bring about, Washington’s limited success against Iran’s formidable military and political resilience has made Kurdish groups wary of full-fledged cooperation. Kurds in Iran and Iraq might be motivated by aspirations for independence and autonomy, yet they also fear that involvement in a US-led campaign could trigger reprisals from Iran in case of failure of such an operation.
Many of them still remember how in 2019 the U.S. abruptly announced a withdrawal of troops from northeastern Syria – a decision that paved the way for Turkey to launch a military operation against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). President Trump tried to justify that decision by arguing that it was necessary to reduce American involvement in “endless wars”, but in doing so, the U.S. badly damaged its reputation and credibility in the region. For the Kurds, who fought hard against ISIS and aided the U.S. in all of their operations, it was synonymous with betrayal.
Still, there will be profound consequences if Kurdish groups ultimately decide to get involved in the ongoing war. Given their guerilla capabilities, they could significantly complicate Iran’s military calculations and stretch Iran’s military resources thin, especially if they manage to incite a broader uprising within Iranian Kurdistan or other disaffected regions. This, coupled with a potential ground offensive from the U.S. and Israel or a new wave of aerial strikes, could lead to a prolonged insurgency or civil unrest, further destabilizing Iran’s internal stability at a time when Tehran faces multiple external threats as well as the need to secure unity in its military and political ranks.
On a regional level, increased Kurdish involvement could alter the balance of power. Turkey, which perceives Kurdish independence movements as existential threats and recently struck a ceasefire deal with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party leading to plans of its dissolution, would likely respond aggressively, possibly launching military incursions into Kurdish-held areas in northern Syria or Iraq to prevent the emergence of a more autonomous Kurdish zone aligned with US interests. This escalation risks igniting wider conflicts and complicating international efforts to contain regional tensions. Additionally, neighboring Arab monarchies, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, might see Kurdish involvement as destabilizing, intensifying their own fears of regional fragmentation, and possibly leading to increased military involvement in the conflict.
All in all, the Kurds are positioned as a potential key factor in the ongoing struggle involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. However, their engagement in the war risks severe consequences igniting the whole Middle East and causing a dramatic shift in the balance of power in the region. Whether the U.S. – or any other global power – is ready for such events cannot be foreseen, but it is clear that many advisors within the U.S. Department of War are currently drafting plans for prolonged warfare in Iran and increased instability in the whole of the Middle East.
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