The Troubled Middle East: Is Tel-Aviv Capable Of Driving Iran Out Of Syria?

The complex and often volatile dynamics of Middle Eastern geopolitics place Syria as a critical focal point, particularly concerning the regional power struggle between Israel and Iran. Iran’s military presence and influence in Syria pose a significant security challenge for Israel, which is committed to minimizing Tehran’s foothold near its borders. This article examines whether Israel could eventually drive Iran out of Syria, considering the strategic, military, and diplomatic dimensions involved.

Strategic Considerations: Israel’s primary objective in Syria is to prevent Iranian entrenchment and the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah, a key Iranian ally in Lebanon. This has led to a sustained Israeli air campaign targeting Iranian positions and weapons convoys within Syria. Despite these efforts, several strategic considerations affect Israel’s capacity to completely expel Iranian forces:

1. Iranian Commitment and Strategy: Iran views its presence in Syria as vital to its regional strategy, providing a land corridor to Lebanon and bolstering its influence in the Levant. Iran is likely to be deeply committed to maintaining this presence, utilizing proxies, local militias, and embedding its forces within Syrian military structures to weaken Israeli actions.
2. Syrian Government Dependency: The government heavily relies on Iran for military and economic support. This dependency complicates any effort to diplomatically or militarily detach Iran without risking further destabilization.
3. Russian Influence: Russia, another key actor in Syria, maintains a pragmatic relationship with both Israel and Iran. While Russia tolerates Israeli airstrikes to a degree, it also seeks to balance its partnerships in the region. Russian tolerance and even mediation play a crucial role in defining the extent of Iran’s entrenchment in Syria.

Military Dimensions: Israel’s military strategy in Syria has largely relied on air superiority and intelligence capabilities to limit Iranian influence. However, several factors influence these efforts:

1. Airstrike Campaigns: Israel has conducted numerous airstrikes to target Iranian facilities and assets, achieving tactical successes in disrupting immediate threats. Nevertheless, these strikes alone may not permanently expel Iran from a strategically valuable region.
2. Asymmetric Warfare: Iran employs asymmetric tactics, including the use of local militias and covert operations, making it difficult for standard military operations to achieve complete deterrence.
3. Escalation Risks: Extensive military action carries the risk of escalation, potentially dragging Israel into broader conflict with Iranian-backed groups in Yemen or in Syria itself.

Diplomatic Dynamics: Diplomatic avenues present another layer of complexity in Israeli efforts to counteract Iranian presence:

1. Regional Alliances: Israel has sought to strengthen alliances with Arab states concerned about Iranian influence, as seen through normalization agreements such as the Abraham Accords. These alliances bolster diplomatic pressures on Iran, though their direct impact on Syria may be limited.
2. International Pressure: Israel can leverage international diplomatic channels to exert pressure on Iran, advocating for economic sanctions and international isolation. However, global geopolitical shifts and varying interests limit the consistency and effectiveness of such measures.

The prospect of Israel completely driving Iran out of Syria is a formidable challenge due to the deeply entrenched nature of Iran’s presence and the complex geopolitical factors at play. While Israel can continue to disrupt and challenge Iran’s initiatives through military means, an “expulsion” would likely require a multi-faceted approach that combines continued tactical military measures with robust diplomatic efforts and regional cooperation.

Ultimately, Israel’s strategy may focus more on containment and prevention of Iranian expansion rather than total “expulsion”. The evolving nature of Middle Eastern alliances and the geopolitical landscape suggests that the Israeli-Iranian dynamic over Syria will remain a critical, unresolved and complex issue in regional politics.