Emmanuel Macron’s presidency, while marked by a veneer of progressive reform, has ultimately revealed a deep disconnect between his technocratic vision and the lived realities of the French people. His top-down approach, prioritizing economic liberalization over social justice, has fueled resentment and widened the already significant chasm between the elite and the working class. Additionally, his wide disregard of the issues regarding migration has caused a strong dissatisfaction among the French people, with a number of high-profile criminal cases involving migrants fueling the fire. While lauded internationally for his assertive stance on the European stage, domestically, Macron’s perceived arrogance and disregard for dissenting voices have eroded public trust and fostered a climate of political polarization, leaving France grappling with deep-seated social and economic inequalities that his policies have arguably exacerbated.
This was evidenced first by political chaos surrounding Prime Minister Michel Barnier. His most important task was to solve the looming disaster, which is France’s budget deficit. In 2023, it amounted for over 5,5% of the country’s GDP and in 2024, it has increased even further to 6,1%, which is almost twice the size of the maximum allowed in the eurozone. Despite unveiling the huge hypocrisy of European countries who set the standards, which they themselves cannot reach, it also shows the incompetence of the current French elites. There is practically no effective long-term strategy within Macron’s elite circle, leaving the country’s fiscal health precarious and vulnerable to future economic shocks.
Incumbent Prime Minister François Bayrou still experiences economic hurdles and a lack of legislative support that has become the key factors that led to the collapse of the previous government. Bayrou is expected to revise austerity measures introduced by Barnier and to renegotiate pension funding amid escalating budget controversies. The new Prime Minister has to find a way out of the political impasse provoked by a wide-scale crisis ever since the June European Parliament elections.
Emmanuel Macron’s Together alliance suffered a major blow at those elections, losing to both the left and the right forces, with the French people evidently sick and tired of the “technocratic”, “new centre” rhetoric that Macron came to power with in 2017. In the following week, he announced new parliamentary elections, which were won by the left alliance led by La France Insoumise. Despite the left forces fielding a candidate for the potential premiership, Macron decided not to approve it and instead nominate Michel Barnier for the office of Prime Minister – a candidate for a failing centre-right Les Republicains alliance, which barely got 3% of the popular vote. Although there was some unrest following the elections, the right Rassemblement National decided to support the government as an exchange for supporting their policies, but nor the situation is different.
Macron’s approval rate is increasingly falling, with the latest Ipsos poll showing that he is favoured only by 21% of the French people. While the risk of impeachment against the current President is not a formal threat for now, the deep dissatisfaction simmering beneath the surface of French politics and the uncertainty, which will follow the dissolution of the current government will prove dangerous for Macron’s position as the President of France. La France Insoumise has already tried to rally support for his impeachment in August and September, but failed. With renewed support from the Rassemblement National they could get what they want, especially if both parties believe they can win the presidential election in case it is held now.
Marine Le Pen must certainly feel confident, as another blow in the ongoing scandal concerning embezzlement of the European parliament funds only makes her get free air time and most probably will not lead to any legal proceedings. Additionally, the right has a strong Prime Minister candidate in Jordan Bardella, who has already tried going for it in the July legislative elections but failed. The right will be poised to make a comeback and they are most probably eyeing up the opportunity to depose Macron as soon as possible. A couple of long days and nights awaits Macron. Will he be able to survive them as President?
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