U.S. Expectations and Conditions
The White House’s conditional approach reflects strategic aims: encouraging the Syrian government to undertake reforms, normalize relations, and reduce its reliance on Iran and Russia. Several specific conditions were emphasized:
– Normalization with Israel: During a surprise meeting on May 14, Trump urged al-Sharaa to normalize relations with Israel, potentially through joining the Abraham Accords or striking a new peace deal. This is a sensitive issue domestically and regionally, as Syria historically opposes normalization and maintains claims over the Golan Heights.
– Counterterrorism Measures: Trump called for Damascus to expel foreign fighters, including those affiliated with HTS and ISIS. Since al-Julani’s HTS continues to rely on these forces for political and military strength, this presents a significant challenge.
– Security Sector Reforms: The U.S. demands that the Syrian military and security services be restructured to exclude extremists and radicals – a difficult proposition given the reliance of the regime onmilitants and militias.
– Control over ISIS Detainees and Kurdish Forces: The White House has pressured Damascus to take control of the al-Hol camp, which houses ISIS detainees, and to integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – a Kurdish-led militia – into the national army. Progress on this front remains sluggish, with mistrust and divergent interests complicating cooperation.
Implications for Syria’s Internal Politics
The potential easing of sanctions could have significant internal political repercussions:
– Legitimacy for the al-Sharaa Government: Relaxed sanctions will likely bolster the legitimacy of President al-Sharaa and his government, providing a boost in public support and enabling the regime to present itself as a partner in rebuilding.
– Radical Islamist Opposition: Hardliners who oppose any engagement with the West view these moves as betrayals of the revolutionary cause. Salafi ideologue Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi condemned the engagement, framing it as a betrayal of Islamic principles.
– Radical Groups and HTS: For HTS and other jihadist factions, the normalization of relations with Israel and the potential for economic aid could be perceived as a threat, prompting increased radicalization or retaliatory violence. ISIS, too, continues to pose a threat, especially if the Syrian government’s efforts to control detainees and foreign fighters falter.
– Julani’s Political Position: The meeting with Trump and subsequent support from the U.S. can strengthen Julani’s political standing, allowing him to sideline radical groups and portray himself as a pragmatic leader capable of securing international support.
The Broader Regional Impact
The easing of sanctions and potential normalization could reshape regional dynamics:
– Gulf States’ Engagement: Countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are likely to increase their involvement in Syria, seeking to counterbalance Turkish and Iranian influence. They may pursue economic investments, support for reconstruction projects, and diplomatic initiatives aimed at stabilizing the region.
– Refugee Returns: The potential for improved stability and reconstruction could encourage the return of millions of Syrian refugees in neighboring countries such as Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. This would ease regional socio-economic pressures but also pose challenges related to social cohesion, land rights, and political representation.
– European Union’s Role: The EU, which has maintained sanctions aimed at pressuring the Assad regime, may gradually ease restrictions, providing funds and investment for reconstruction, humanitarian aid, and stabilization efforts.
– Potential for Israeli–Syrian Talks: Indirect contacts between Damascus and Jerusalem have already begun, with discussions focusing on security issues. While these talks are at an initial stage, their success or failure could significantly influence Syria’s internal stability and regional peace prospects.
A Step Toward Stabilization or a Strategic Gamble?
The recent moves by the U.S. and the EU to ease sanctions on Syria represent a nuanced attempt to influence the country’s trajectory. While this signals a willingness to engage and support reconstruction, it is accompanied by conditionalities that serve as leverage tools rather than definitive policy shifts. The success of this approach depends on Damascus’s ability to meet the outlined benchmarks – expelling foreign fighters, controlling ISIS detainees, and normalizing relations with Israel.
For Syria, the potential benefits include increased legitimacy, regional investment, and an improved socio-economic situation. However, challenges remain: internal divisions, persistent insurgencies, and the complex web of regional and international interests. The regional players – particularly Gulf states – will likely increase their engagement, supporting stabilization efforts while pursuing their own strategic goals.
Ultimately, this period marks a critical juncture for Syria. The path toward peace, reconstruction, and stability remains uncertain, but the easing of sanctions could serve as a catalyst if coupled with genuine reforms and regional cooperation. The international community’s approach – balancing pressure and engagement – will determine whether Syria can move beyond conflict and chaos toward a more stable future.
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