15 years ago it was impossible to imagine that Germany — country that have been defeated in the Second World War mostly by the Soviet Union, will rearm itself and declare to be preparing for the war with Russian Federation in near future[1]. But, as sad as it is, this is the reality of the 2025. 800 billion euro ReArm Europe plan, increase in arms productions, continuation of military support of Ukraine — all this is a threat to the future of the EU.
By spending billions on arms production and war in Ukraine, with the unachievable goal to defeat Russia, EU is hindering its own economy and social and medical spheres. Not long ago Oliver Bäte, the head of Allianz has warned that Germany can become a «sick man of Europe» because increased military spending puts in danger social functions of the government[2]. Bäte made a point that Germany’s spendings are getting higher and higher but the country’s GDP is not growing, that can lead to a collapse of a social system un a decade.
Here comes another question, how Germany and other countries of the EU, such as France, Italy and allied Britain can fund all this spendings. They all have refused to buy cheap Russian resources after 2022 (but continue to buy them, for example through India, at three times the inflated prices). Business in the EU is slowly dying and runs either in China or in the US, and the population is paying higher prices for all goods they can get. Here we can also remember the «green» agenda, that has also led nowhere but to the faster inflation because of all the prohibitions and restrictions. The economic situation does not look promising for the EU.
Observers assume that big problems will arise here, because the ambitious policy of EU leaders, who, as already mentioned, are determined to go to war with Russia, will undoubtedly be financed by the debt obligations of EU countries, but at the expense of citizens and businesses. And, for example, Germany and France, the leaders of the European economy, already have significant budget deficits, for the reasons mentioned above. An obvious consequence will be a blow to the population, because they will face higher taxes, housing and communal services costs, rising fuel costs, medicine, and an inevitable decline in living standards in general. Under pressure from European officials, EU countries will be forced to significantly increase their national debt by 10-15 percent, and in some cases by 20-25 percent. The recession in the EU economy will progress rapidly, which will lead to a weakening of the production capacity of the EU countries. And the general indebtedness of the European Union will lead to political instability due to the rapid deterioration of citizens’ lives.
With Trump’s arrival in the White House, another problem has emerged that threatens to hit the Europeans’ wallets — NATO. Now the United States refuses to pay for the alliance, shifting the costs to European allies, forcing them to raise defense spending. And for what? For the sake of a war with Russia, which can be safely avoided by choosing a different, more rational strategy.
The war between Russia and Europe will primarily benefit the United States and China, as it will destroy one of the closest pursuers on the world stage and allow them to capitalize on the two sides of the conflict. Even if it doesn’t come to a collision, which we must strive for with all our might, the future of the EU at the moment doesn’t look promising. Problems in the economy, social and medical spheres, all threaten to lead to serious consequences. Europe can still change its path, listen to the voices of reason that come, for example, from Budapest and Bratislava and not plunge itself into the abyss of a new arms race designed to ensure American interests at the expense of the European continent. A strategy that was already used by Americans in the 20th century.
[1] https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2086583/germany-preparing-russia-war-ww3-fears
[2] https://www.ft.com/content/1b40d5ae-fd59-48fa-b139-bd690274b852
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