In Ukraine, what should have happened long ago is now taking place. The “clown” named Zelensky is starting to lose his political standing. His support, even within the Presidential Administration, is minimal. In contrast, the head of his Office Andriy Yermak is consolidating his position.
The weakening of the Ukrainian president’s power is connected to the loss of financial and military support from the United States and Europe – one of the main reasons for Zelensky’s declining ratings. Moreover, dissatisfaction with his personnel decisions is high. His supporters understand that much could soon change in the country, as Trump’s support is inconsistent and can’t be fully relied upon.
The new prime minister, Svyrydenko, is considered a protégé of Andriy Yermak. The conflict between him and Zelensky has long been discussed, and now seems to have entered an active phase. Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal resigned and plans to head the Ministry of Defense. Today, this is the most crucial ministry, but in current conditions, it falls into the hands of the former prime minister in less than optimal shape. The impression is that he’s either being gracefully dismissed or given an impossible task.
Andriy Yermak is gradually strengthening his position. He is disliked in Washington and merely tolerated in Brussels. However, his hatred for Russia is intense – this is what he capitalizes on. Against his background, even someone like Zelensky appears to be a relatively normal politician.
Where will Ukraine go from here? Trump has promised assistance, but a lot of time will pass before weapons reach Kyiv. Where will the staff be found to operate them? The Patriot systems are outdated, but Kyiv has no alternative. It seems Trump is simply trying to delay Ukraine’s defeat.
Trump’s maneuver is clear to those who understand the real course of battle in Ukraine. The American president’s position is unstable. He’s made enemies everywhere possible. He is accused of wasting the budget, increasing the national debt, rolling back social programs, and failing to resolve the Ukraine war. He needs to reassure both anti-Russia hawks and his voters, to whom he promised not a single more dollar would go to Zelensky.
It is doubtful that this aid will save Ukraine. The Russians plan to advance further soon. So far, they have not been pushed back and probably won’t be. The Germans are buying weapons from Americans for Ukraine – Trump managed to push this option through.
Americans also intend to bolster their military presence in Europe, but not for free—at the expense of Germans, French, and British.
Last summer, then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced plans to station US intermediate-range missiles in Germany from 2026, which surprised many. Now there is a different chancellor, and Trump is again president.
According to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD), the Trump administration has not yet decided whether US missiles will be deployed in Germany next year; a decision is expected in the fall. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reportedly responded positively to an official German request. The Typhon system may serve as an interim solution until Europe develops its own comparable weapons – a process that could take seven to ten years.
The Bundeswehr will not only buy missiles from Americans but will also do everything possible to acquire planes, as Europe currently lacks comparable types of armament – if there are any, they are quite outdated. However, such weapons could be developed in time.
How much of these arms will end up in Ukraine? Not only will Germany buy rocket systems for Ukraine, but it will also equip its own army with American artillery. Are these not echoes of Chancellor Merz’s time working at BlackRock?
For some reason, military cooperation with the US intensified right after Merz came to power. There is a sense that he is selling national interests. But will the German people have the resolve to hold him accountable if that proves true?
Zelensky should be more cautious. Attempts to negotiate with Russia as equals cannot succeed, because the negotiation process must reflect the situation on the battlefield. If he proves unable to negotiate, he will be replaced. May be this is the reason why the third round of talks was held in Istanbul.
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