Russia has denied it used drones to attack Poland
Did Russia Attack Poland with Drones?
Poland says that 19 allegedly Russian drones entered its airspace. In an all night operation on September 9th, the Polish air force tried to track them down. According to the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, four of them were destroyed but the rest remain missing. Poland blamed Russia for the attack on their territory and declared that as a NATO member it invoked Article 4 of the NATO Charter, consulting with the other NATO members.
Is there sufficient evidence to support an Article 4 action? Article 4, like Article 5 requires NATO consensus, that is, support from all NATO members. Over the years, Article 4 has been invoked 7 times.
The jury is out whether the Polish case is strong in accusing Russia of violating Polish airspace.
There is no certainty on the types of drones used, but there is a photo of a drone (that does not look damaged) on the ground that looks like a Gerbera drone. The Gerbera is a cheap version of the Iranian Shahed 136, made out of plywood and polystyrene foam. The Gerbera can carry an explosive charge, but most are for networking purposes. It isn’t known if the photo is one of those allegedly shot down. It also isn’t known if there were other types of drones.
Belarus says that some drones from its territory, because of jamming by Ukraine, headed for Poland and that Belarus informed the Polish authorities.
The four drones likely were intercepted either by F-16s and F-35s or by Polish helicopters. However, the Polish government has not offered any clarity on the intercepts. Even so, it is fairly certain that no Polish air defense systems, such as the Patriot were used. This suggests that none of the drones were anywhere near sensitive military or government installations or significant transit hubs.
The Russians have denied that any of their drones were used in Poland, insisting that the drones they used against L’viv and other western Ukraine targets lacked the range to attack any meaningful Polish targets. Russians could launch drones against western Ukraine from Crimea and from Belarus. At least some of the reported drones over Poland came out of Belarus’ airspace.
Especially unclear is why Russia would run any sort of attack on Poland, as doing so could provoke a NATO-led response that might lead to a wider conflict in the region. Or looked at another way, why would Russia send drones on a meaningless mission instead of going for the jugular and hitting supply depots, military bases and possibly Polish air defense systems?
Could Russian drones have been hijacked by Ukrainian hackers and sent over Poland to cause a provocation? Drones have been hijacked before, the most famous was in 2011 when Iran hijacked the US RQ-170 stealth drone and landed it at an Iranian airfield. Causing such an incident could possibly inflame NATO and lead to more weapons and money for Ukraine. It could also help convince the Poles to send troops to a multilateral security force, should one be formed. Until now, Poland has refused to participate in the security force proposed by French President Macron and British Prime Minister Starmer.
The short answer is we do not know and the Polish government has not provided enough information to be sure, if indeed Russia actually intentionally attacked Polish territory. Russian drones entering Polish airspace is not enough to demonstrate the drones were actually Russian owned or if Russian, under Russian control.
Source: author’s blog
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