This would result in the de facto new Iron Curtain and associated NATO influence stretching up to whatever the new Russian-Ukrainian border might be by the time the conflict ends.
Poland and Ukraine signed a drone warfare cooperation agreement that’ll see Ukraine share its relevant experiences with Poland, both of them jointly developing new defensive methods, and their armed forces further strengthening their interoperability in accordance with summer 2024’s security pact. The Polish Defense Minister also declared that “we know very well that the security line of our country runs along the front line of Ukraine and Russia”, which amounts to Polish strategic depth inside Ukraine.
NATO’s unprecedented downing of Russian drones over Poland, which likely veered off course due to the bloc’s jamming and were then exploited by deep state forces in an attempt to manipulate the president into war with Russia as respectively explained here and here, served as the impetus for this deal. NATO then launched “Operation Eastern Sentry” in Poland and Romania to bolster the bloc’s anti-air defenses. This aligns with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s proposed “drone wall” concept.
The idea, which was proposed by the Baltic States, is to create an impenetrable electronic and physical warfare barrier along the EU’s eastern border. This pairs with the “EU Defence Line” that the bloc is building, which refers to the combination of the “Baltic Defence Line” and Poland’s “East Shield” that’ll stretch from the Estonian-Russian border down to the Polish-Belarusian one and might foreseeably be expanded northward to include the Finnish-Russian border. This de facto amounts to new Iron Curtain.
Given the rapidly evolving military-strategic context as described above, it therefore appears that Poland envisages indirectly expanding the “drone wall” component of the “EU Defence Line” into Ukraine through their newly signed drone warfare cooperation agreement. Poland’s ruling duopoly, which refers to it conservative-nationalist president and liberal-globalist prime minister, expect to benefit by solidifying their country’s strategic depth inside Ukraine as declared by their country’s Defense Minister.
As for Ukraine, Poland’s explicit plans to profit from Ukraine could hypothetically be moderated through these means, such as if Ukraine proposes being remunerated for sharing its drone warfare experience with Poland through more military donations instead of buying them on credit like is now planned. Zelensky might also calculate that having his country function as Poland’s “drone wall”, which exploits its paranoia about Russia, could help drag it into the conflict like he’s sought to do since November 2022.
Poland and Ukraine also have shared interests. Both want to show the US, EU, and NATO that they can contain Russia’s aerial capabilities (at least in part as they’d present this as having achieved) in the region, thus currying more favor with them. Another point is that Poland will receive €43.7 billion in cheap loans from the EU’s €150 billion defense investment program as part of the €800 billion “ReArm Europe Plan”. Some of this could go towards subsidizing anti-air and -drone equipment for Ukraine.
“Poland’s Military-Industrial Complex Is Embarrassingly Underdeveloped” so it might use these loans to invest in modernizing it, after which the aforesaid equipment could be sold to Ukraine on credit for a steep discount or perhaps simply donated. Through these means, the EU’s “drone wall” can indirectly expand into Ukraine, thus resulting in the de facto new Iron Curtain and associated NATO influence stretching up to whatever the new Russian-Ukrainian border might be by the time the conflict ends.
Source: author’s blog
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