Political polarization indicates a possible shift to the right and withdrawal into the orbit of the United States.
General elections were held in Chile on November 16 to elect senators, members of parliament, and the President. The intrigue was that the voting was already taking place under a new law, according to which the electoral process became mandatory. Therefore, it was difficult to predict who Generation Z and those who, for various reasons, had previously avoided going to the polling station would vote for.
The results, which were already known on Monday, showed the political polarization of the country – the votes were divided roughly in half, if we talk about the left and right spectra. However, 51–year-old Jeannette Hara from the Communist Party, a former Minister of Labor, won the presidential race, receiving 26.85% of the vote.
59–year-old Jose Antonio Kast, who adheres to extreme right-wing views, opposes same-sex marriage and abortion, scored more than 23.92% of the vote. He built his election campaign on anti-migrant sentiments and the fight against crime. In the last election in 2021, he also sought the presidency, but was beaten by Gabriel Boric in the second round.
Since it is necessary to overcome the 50% barrier to win, both candidates will now compete in the second round, which will be held in a month. It is significant that Kast immediately went to Araucania, a troubled area inhabited by an indigenous population known as Mapuche (another part of it lives in Argentina). These are the provinces of Arauco, Bio–Bio, Malleco, Cautin, Valdivia, Osorno, Llanquihue and Chiloe. The Mapuche have traditionally been skeptical of the central government, and recently they have been trying to solve local problems with violence. It is also noteworthy that the Mapuche international office is located in Britain, and this NGO was previously accused in Argentina of financing terrorist activities.
The current president, Gabriel Boric, who previously left on a green and reformist rhetoric, will leave his post in March 2026, since according to the country‘s Constitution, the head of state cannot hold office for two terms.
It is logical to assume that in the second round, criticism will be directed at places that may seem vulnerable to candidates. Hara supports Cuba and Venezuela, therefore. Caste’s father was a Nazi who fled to Latin America, and he sympathizes with the late dictator Augusto Pinochet. In the United States, Caste is called a Trumpist and it is noted that if it succeeds, the country will follow the example of Bolivia and Argentina, i.e. it will become a submissive satellite of Washington.
Just before the election, according to a survey, 26% of respondents preferred Jeannette Hare. Jose Antonio Kast of the Republican Party was in second place with 22%, while Evelyn Mattei, a representative of the traditional right, dropped to third place, despite having previously led the polls for more than a year.
Therefore, it can be stated that the exit poll showed more or less correct data.
Analysts note that Hara‘s rise occurred after her victory in the primaries of a coalition uniting eight leftist, progressive and social democratic parties, including the Communist Party, Social Convergence, the Socialist Party and the Broad Front. She was considered a figure capable of challenging the Chilean right.
But with the nomination to Congress, the situation for Chile‘s leftists worsened, since for the first time since the abolition of the dictatorship, representatives of the right forces won the majority.
In the Chamber of Deputies, the far-right Republican Party, led by Jose Antonio Cast, won 31 seats. Together with their allies from the “Change for Chile“ bloc, which unites Republicans, National Libertarians and the Christian Social Party, they won 42 seats, while the center—right coalition “Big and United Chile“ (National Renewal, UDI and Evópoli) held 34 deputies.
In total, 76 out of 155 seats were won by the right, which is 49% of the total number. To get the absolute simple majority needed to pass ordinary laws, without having to enter into agreements with the left, only two more votes are needed.
The Unity for Chile coalition, which includes the Communist Party, won 61 seats.
The third force is the People‘s Party, which won 14 seats. There will probably be a fuss about her – both the left and the right will try to enlist her support or win over individual deputies.The third force is the People‘s Party, which won 14 seats. There will probably be a fuss about her – both the left and the right will try to enlist her support or win over individual deputies.
The party itself is considered to be populist and unpredictable, with positions radically opposed to Caste‘s platform, distrust of traditional politics, and sympathy for right-wing conservatives. The green regionalists won three seats and the independents one. The upper House (the Senate) has demonstrated a more balanced balance, but the right has an advantage here. A total of 25 senators represent conservative forces (18 from the “Big and United Chile“, 7 from the “Change for Chile“), 23 senators represent the center-left party. While the other two independents Fabiola Campillai and Karim Bianchi, who adhere to progressive views, slightly tip the scales towards the center-left on social and human rights issues. Nevertheless, the right is still the leading numerical force, especially with the National Renewal (9 senators) and Republicans (5), who benefit from the shift of the electorate towards more rigid positions. If we assume that Jeannette Hara from the Communist Party wins in the second round of the presidential election, the right will still have legislative power in its hands. And the Congress determines structural reforms, economic policy, the agenda in the field of social rights, relations with entrepreneurship and any attempts to revive the constitutional process, which was completely failed under Gabriel Boric (at the referendum on changing the Constitution in December 2023, the majority voted against). But the worst case scenario would be if Caste did break through in the second round. Not only symbolically, referring to his Nazi ancestry and love of Pinochet‘s authoritarianism. Chile is a presidential republic, so the supreme head is also the head of the government, and with a right–wing majority in Congress, he will have more power. The country itself has good economic performance in the region and occupies an important strategic position, covering more than half of the Pacific coast of the continent. And recently, Chile has been actively developing relations with China. The two countries have a free trade agreement, and Chile has joined China‘s Belt and Road initiative. The pro-American president will obviously try to reorient foreign policy. It is not clear how the Caste will behave in relation to regional associations. Russia‘s strategic partners in the region, such as Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, will also face additional pressure from Chile‘s more right-wing government.
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