Ukrainian Negotiations Drag On

Peace negotiations in Ukraine are hampered by the Zelensky administration’s resistance. The administration is attempting to buy time, first through legal means, then through military means, and finally through political means. However, the contacts made suggest what this peace will look like.

Peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are dragging on. Clearly, the Russian side, confident of victory, intends to liberate what remains of the Donbas as soon as possible, while the Ukrainian side refuses to concede anything.

The Europeans of the EU and the UK are holding numerous meetings, almost one a day, with the sole obsession of continuing the war, with or without the United States.

Two new events have changed the situation: Washington is considering leaving NATO, and the Ukrainians are accepting the idea of selling their country.

Washington and NATO

On December 1st, a secret videoconference was held with the participation of:
the French (Emmanuel Macron) and Finnish (Alexander Stubb) presidents, the German Chancellor (Friedrich Merz), the Polish (Donald Tusk), Italian (Giorgia Meloni), Danish (Mette Frederiksen), and Norwegian (Jonas Gahr Støre) prime ministers, the NATO Secretary General (Mark Rutte), the President of the European Commission (Ursula von der Leyen), and the President of the European Council (António Costa).

According to Der Spiegel, which obtained a copy of the meeting’s minutes, the NATO Secretary General stated that he agreed with the Finnish president and that Europeans should be wary of the peace talks in Ukraine being negotiated by President Donald Trump’s special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. [1]

This is the first time a sitting NATO Secretary General has dared to openly criticize a sitting US President.

The National Security Strategy, published on December 4 by the White House, mentions NATO five times. However, it is no longer a crucial alliance for the United States, given that President Trump has declared the end of the “American Empire.” Washington is too preoccupied with its $33 trillion debt to dedicate itself to the defense of Western Europe. The document therefore merely notes that the member states of the Atlantic Alliance will have to ensure their own security by allocating 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP), a far cry from their current spending. It also notes that the alliance is not expected to expand further [2].

On December 9, five days later, a Republican representative, Thomas Massie (Kentucky), introduced a bill (HR 6508) aimed at withdrawing the United States from NATO. This bill was referred to the Foreign Affairs Committee on December 12 [3]. This is the first time this subject will be addressed in Congress.

It is too early to draw any conclusions, but we must already acknowledge that there is a current within the Trump administration opposed to the Atlantic alliance, and that European states are aware that they will not be able to simultaneously ensure their own national defense and attack the Russian Federation.

Privately, President Trump’s associates maintain that he will withdraw from the alliance by mid-2027; a deadline that could be brought forward.

The leaders of the European Union are well aware of this. The President of the European Council, António Costa, declared on December 8th before the Jacques Delors Institute: “If we want to protect ourselves, not only against our adversaries, but also against allies who challenge us, we must strengthen Europe. We need to work together to build a Europe that understands that the relationships between allies and the alliances formed after the Second World War have changed.”

Certainly, but EU members simply don’t have the resources of the United States. They cannot ensure their own defense alone. Moreover, if they wished to, they would have to organize themselves around one of the three nuclear powers in their region: France, the United Kingdom, or… Russia.

Dictator Zelensky and the Elections

A month ago, on November 11, Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, gave the signal for “Operation Midas.” The main allies of the unelected Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, fell, one by one. It is inconceivable that he is not one of the main beneficiaries of the embezzlement of funds from Ukraine and the extortion of Ukrainian businesses. Yet no one dares to arrest him. Clearly, he is trying to cling to power to secure his gains or transfer them abroad.

He first rallied Ukraine’s supporters, holding numerous meetings in Athens, Paris, London, Brussels, Rome, and Berlin, while his special representative and the secretary general of his Defense Council, Rustem Umerov, was already in hiding. Power in Ukraine is therefore now a shadowy affair: the unelected president could fall at any moment, and his chief negotiator can no longer return to his homeland.

In an interview with Politico on December 9 [4], President Trump made the following statement:

— Dasha Burns: Is it time for Ukraine to hold an election, do you think?
— Donald Trump: Yes. I think so. It’s been a long time. It’s, uh… it hasn’t gone particularly well. Yes, I believe it’s time. I think it’s an important moment to hold elections. They’re using the war not to hold an election, but, uh, I think the Ukrainian people should… should have that choice. And maybe Zelenskyy would win. I don’t know who would win. But they haven’t had an election in a long time. You know, they talk about a democracy, but it’s getting to the point where it’s no longer a democracy.

The unelected president immediately replied: “I am ready for elections. I am now asking, I am stating this openly, the United States to help me, possibly with European colleagues, to ensure security for holding elections.”

It is important to know that the Ukrainian Constitution prohibits elections during periods of martial law. Martial law was first imposed in 2018 by President Petro Poroshenko during the presidential election campaign [5].

Then, a second time, in 2022, by President Volodymyr Zelensky during the Russian special military operation.

Martial law institutes nine measures:
• Restrictions on the constitutional rights and freedoms of civilians;
• Introduction of a “work obligation,” applicable to everyone, whether employed or not, and which may include service in the military;
• Seizure of state-owned property, or “forcibly disposing of” communal and private property “for the needs of the state”;
• Introduction of a curfew;
• Introduction of military checkpoints and restrictions on “the freedom of movement of citizens, foreigners, and stateless persons, as well as the movement of vehicles”;
• Verification of individuals’ documents and inspection of their locations;
• Prohibition of peaceful demonstrations, gatherings, and mass events;
• Prohibition or restrictions on the media;
• Prohibition or restrictions on the transfer of information on social media.

In both cases, the aim was clearly to establish an authoritarian regime. While Poroshenko only implemented it for thirty days, Zelensky has renewed it every three months since February 2022. According to the sixteenth presidential decree on the matter that he promulgated, it is extended until next February.

According to the Constitution, Volodymyr Zelensky’s term expired in May 2025. Since then, the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, Ruslan Stefanchuk, should have been serving as interim president. Not only did he not request this position, but he accompanied the outgoing president on his initial trips to assert his legitimacy.

If elections were held today, the electoral lists would be falsified, as hundreds of thousands of soldiers killed in action are still listed. Under these circumstances, it would be child’s play for the regime to rig the ballot boxes.

The Russian side has repeatedly emphasized that it cannot sign a peace agreement with an illegitimate figure. It recalls that President Poroshenko declared the Minsk agreements, signed by his special envoy and predecessor, Leonid Kuchma, null and void overnight because this high-ranking official had not been validated by him or by the Verkhovna Rada.

The announcement by the now unelected Ukrainian president that he would agree to hold elections is therefore likely just a way to buy time and further postpone peace.

Selling Ukraine to the Highest Bidder

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham (South Carolina) estimated the value of Ukraine’s rare earth elements at between $10 trillion and $12 trillion during a June 9, 2024 interview on “Face the Nation” (CBS News).

President Trump had mentioned the possibility of transferring them to the United States a few months earlier to repay what the war cost them. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent traveled to Kyiv on February 12 to discuss the matter with President Zelensky.

So, on December 10, the unelected president, Volodymyr Zelensky, convened a videoconference with Scott Bessent, Jared Kushner (not as a negotiator in Moscow, but as head of the Affinity Partners fund), and Larry Fink (head of the BlackRock fund and already owner of a large portion of the farmland) [6]. The purpose was clearly to assess what could be purchased in exchange for the rare earths. What was unthinkable ten months ago had suddenly become possible.

A second meeting was held the following day, December 11. Zelensky brought together the main US negotiators and invited the NATO Secretary General. The aim was to review security guarantees, given that NATO is no longer a permanent entity.