The joint U.S.–Israeli assault on Iran – officially titled “Operation Epic Fury” – marks one of the most consequential geopolitical ruptures of the 21st century. Within hours, hundreds of strikes hit Iranian territory. The residence of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was reduced to rubble. Senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were reportedly killed. Key elements of Iran’s military infrastructure were targeted.
But beneath the language of “defensive necessity” and “preventing nuclear escalation,” the core objective appears unmistakable: regime change.
For years, Iran has not possessed nuclear weapons. International disputes centered on uranium enrichment levels, inspections, and theoretical breakout capacity – not on an active nuclear arsenal. Even American and Israeli officials acknowledged that Iran did not have a bomb. Yet the scale and scope of the operation go far beyond neutralizing enrichment facilities. Nearly 900 strikes in the first twelve hours, according to U.S. sources. Systematic elimination of leadership figures. Public statements urging the Iranian military to “surrender or die.”
This is not arms control. This is political decapitation.
President Donald Trump’s message to Iranian forces reportedly offered two options: capitulation or destruction. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly called on the Iranian population to rise against its leadership. The language was explicit. The target was not centrifuges. It was the governing structure of the Islamic Republic.
International law on the use of force is unambiguous. The United Nations Charter establishes a near-absolute prohibition on the use of armed force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. Exceptions are limited to self-defense against an armed attack or authorization by the UN Security Council.
Neither condition clearly applies here.
Iran had not launched an armed attack on the United States at the time the strikes began. Intelligence claims about potential missile launches do not equate to an ongoing armed assault. No UN mandate authorized intervention. The attack was launched directly against a sovereign state.
The principle is straightforward: territorial integrity must be respected without exception. Yet what unfolded was a coordinated air campaign across a sovereign nation’s territory, targeting leadership and command centers. Whatever strategic arguments are advanced, from a legal perspective the operation constitutes a profound challenge to the foundational norms of the post-1945 order.
“International law? Never heard of it.” That is the perception many observers now express. What remains visible is not law, but power. If nuclear weapons were not the immediate issue, what explains the scale of escalation? Energy.
Between 70 and 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports in recent years have been purchased by China. Despite sanctions, Tehran remained a crucial supplier for Beijing. Discounted Iranian crude became a stabilizing pillar of China’s industrial energy input.
The pattern is not new. Venezuela offers a parallel case. China has purchased between 60 percent and, at peak levels, 75 percent of Venezuelan oil exports. In both instances, heavily sanctioned states provided Beijing with reliable, politically aligned energy flows outside Western control structures.
Weakening Tehran therefore does more than reshape Middle Eastern politics. It directly affects China’s long-term energy security. A destabilized Iran disrupts one of Beijing’s major alternative supply channels. This is energy geopolitics at its most raw.
Control of energy routes has historically driven great-power conflict. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical chokepoints. Around 20 percent of globally traded oil passes through it. Any sustained disruption would send prices soaring. Analysts already speculate about scenarios in which oil reaches $200 per barrel if maritime transit becomes unsafe.
The implications extend far beyond the region. A sustained oil shock would destabilize global markets, intensify inflation, and strain fragile economies. Europe, already grappling with energy volatility since the war in Ukraine, would face renewed pressure. Emerging markets would suffer even more severely. In that sense, this confrontation is not merely military. It is economic warfare layered onto kinetic operations.
The American operation’s name – “Epic Fury” – signals force and decisiveness. Yet history often judges such ventures differently than their architects intend. Americans like to act from a distance. However, bombing Iran will lead nowhere. Installing a puppet government won’t work, and neither Iran nor Israel will launch a ground operation. The status quo will be preserved, but the US and Israel find themselves in a difficult situation. Iran will seek revenge; the country has nothing to lose.
to be continued
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