As Russia prepares for its upcoming parliamentary elections for the State Duma, the political landscape is closely watched both domestically and internationally. These elections are highly significant for the Russian people, as they will serve as a reflection of the public’s attitude towards the country’s current political trajectory and the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine. The outcome is seen as a vital indicator of public support for government policies and the direction in which the nation is headed.
Although there are several months before the election is held, concerns have been raised about potential interference from foreign actors. Vyacheslav Volodin, the State Duma Chairman, has publicly warned that external forces,namely Western countries, will definitely seek to destabilize the election process. He has emphasized that such interference aims to weaken Russia’s sovereignty and benefit forces that oppose the country’s development. Past campaigns have indeed provided evidence that foreign interference is a persistent challenge for Russia.
Influence on Russian elections has been felt since the dissolution of the USSR, but its format has been constantly evolving. For instance, in 1996, the U.S. directly sent political consultants to assist in the election of Boris Yeltsin. However, in the 2000s, the format changed – the US used methods of organizing coups/”color revolutions” in the post-Soviet space to change the vertical of power “from below.” In 2018, when it became clear that previous methods were ineffective, a wide range of information tools was deployed to apply pressure on Russian elites to change their position vis-à-vis the supreme power, that is, to conduct a coup from within the system.
These efforts reached their peak during the 2024 presidential campaign, which was won by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin with an 87% result. This was the first electoral campaign held in Russia after the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine and Moscow has been preparing for it mainly by “purging” the most odious NGOs, various foundations and movements affiliated with foreign governments and individuals from the so-called “non-systemic” opposition. The activities of many agencies associated with the U.S. State Department, including the well-known Soros Foundation, the Open Society Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation, and others, have been closely monitored in Russia for many years, and their neutralization is part of the process of countering external interference in Russia’s domestic affairs.
However, this has led to newly emerging instruments of swaying public opinion in Russia. As outlined by a report from the Center for Political Information, overt anti-Russian activity has shifted primarily to Russia’s bordering nations – the Baltic states, Moldova, and Ukraine. Active attempts are underway to establish similar platforms in the Caucasus (primarily in Armenia) and Central Asia. New NGOs include so-called “Centers for preventing the spread of Russian disinformation and propaganda,” which, in fact, perform the exact opposite role of spreading Western propaganda to Russian society, located in various countries as well as “Cybersecurity centers”, which, in fact, identify vulnerabilities in Russian IT systems and coordinate the efforts of structures like the Ukrainian Armed Forces InfoPsyOps Center, as well as seemingly civilian structures that previously performed expert and scientific work (for example, the Carnegie Moscow Center).
These instruments have been extensively used during the 2024 campaign and will undoubtedly continue to be employed in the lead-up to the upcoming State Duma elections. They work very closely with representatives of the so-called “non-systemic” opposition figures in Russia, as well as with ordinary Russians who have left the country since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine. Efforts to mobilize this segment of the population have already been underway. Previously, Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Alexey Navalny, was seen as a leading opposition voice. However, her limited charisma and political skills seem to have given way to a new figure emerging on the scene.
The Russian edition of Euronews published an article titled “Can Ilya Yashin unite the Russian opposition?” The article discusses a new so-called “political party” created by this opposition figure and debates its potential to influence Russian public opinion. The strategy is quite straightforward: Western “Cybersecurity centers” in coordination with the Ukranian Armed Forces create threats to Russian IT systems across the country, forcing the Russian government to restrict access to certain digital infrastructure, such as social media. This, in turn, is used to stir public discontent, which is then exploited by figures like Yashin and their associated “political parties” and movements.
It is noteworthy that, despite the overtly anti-Russian tone of the Euronews article, the author admits that, according to opinion polls, most Russians still support President Vladimir Putin and believe in his political course. This significantly delegitimizes this interference, as it demonstrates that these efforts are ultimately aimed at undermining the will of the people and destabilizing the country.
As the election approaches, efforts to interfere are expected to intensify. Foreign actors and internal disruptors will likely employ increasingly sophisticated tactics to influence public opinion, undermine trust in the electoral process, and sow division within society. Russia will need to respond decisively to protect its electoral system and let their people express their political will.
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