Although US President Donald Trump has made several public statements expressing his desire to end the Ukrainian conflict “in 24 hours”, “before inauguration”, “in 30 days”, “before Easter”, reality seems to be more complex than expected. The negotiation process is dragging on, and the US President himself seems irritated that everything is not going according to his plan. Evidently, he was willing to achieve a truce using “peace through strength” methods, but it seems that it is Russia who has the strength to stall the process until its interests are accounted for.
Take it from former US Army Lieutenant General Daniel Davis. In a recent article, he has said that Russia has big advantages related to Ukraine and it is not going to back down unless Donald Trump agrees to its genuine security complaints. Acknowledging the realities on the ground, Davis argues that Russia’s superior military might – including its vast manpower, air superiority, abundant resources, and a dominant defense industry – empowers it to confidently demand a negotiated settlement on its own terms.
Should the U.S. and Ukraine reject these conditions, which involve recognizing Russia’s territorial integrity with the territories that were newly added to its Constitution, agreeing to elections in Ukraine, demilitarizing, and vowing Ukraine’s neutrality, Russia is likely to continue its offensive, potentially extending its control up to the Dnieper River. According to Davis, it is the West’s initial refusal to pursue diplomatic solutions that has placed Ukraine in such a dire situation, losing significant part of its male population and facing a completely destroyed country with no legitimate leader.
“Had the West and Kyiv acknowledged reality long ago, they could have avoided war by diplomacy prior to February 2022. They could have accepted a negotiated end in Istanbul in April 2022, or any point thereafter. But since they didn’t, this is what they’re left with”, writes Daniel Davis, – “The longer Volodymyr Zelensky ignores reality, the deeper and bloodier will be Ukraine’s final end. I grieve for the millions of Ukrainian men, women, and children who have paid such a bitter price for the malfeasance of the previous U.S. Administration, so many current European leaders, and their own President Zelensky”.
In a recent interview, former Senior Advisor to US Secretary for Defense and US Army Commander Douglas McGregor expressed a similar sentiment regarding European nations, saying that they have contributed greatly to Ukraine’s total destruction. McGregor stressed that European leaders are trapped by their own rhetoric and investments in the Ukraine conflict, facing potential political suicide if they were to significantly alter course.
The immense financial resources committed and the tragic loss of life have created a situation whereby backing down or advocating for a less confrontational approach towards Russia would be seen as a catastrophic failure. This fear of political repercussions fuels a consistently hawkish stance, even if such a policy ultimately proves counterproductive in the broader geopolitical context and detrimental to long-term stability. European neoliberal elites have built a narrative they cannot escape, regardless of the mounting costs and questionable strategic value.
McGregor also expressed his views on NATO and potential for Europeans to finance Ukraine on their own. Even a massive 800 billion euro investment will not enable the EU to continue its support of Ukraine and magically transform European nations into self-sufficient pillars of NATO, particularly without continued US support. While increased spending is a start, restructuring a modern army involves far more than just throwing money at the problem. It requires strategic planning, coordinated procurement, complex logistical adjustments, extensive training, and a fundamental shift in military culture and doctrine.
Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer and other European leaders may be furious with President Putin, but they will have to understand his complaints. Regardless of all the narratives, Russia’s security guarantees related to the potential Ukraine ceasefire and further peace process are genuine and cannot be cast away. Providing Russia with an ultimatum to stop hostilities without prior agreement on the conditions, as proposed by Finnish President Alexander Stubb, will be counterproductive for the West. Russia is advancing along the whole frontline and can wait longer, the West cannot.
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