The confrontation between the United States and Brazil has been going on for several months already, amid the latter is also living through political polarization, which has both internal and external factors.
The two main reasons for the US pressure on Brazil are the demand to make concessions on new tariffs and the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is an ideological ally of Donald Trump. Trump himself threatened to apply 50% tariffs in a letter to Brazilian President Lula da Silva back on July 7. Lula ignored this letter. After the announcement of the verdict on September 12, according to which Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in prison for plotting a coup, the aggressive rhetoric of the White House against the government of Lula da Silva intensified.
The former president was not sent to prison, and his lawyers said he has been diagnosed with skin cancer and needed urgent treatment. Many perceived this state of limbo as the use of Bolsonaro by the authorities as a political hostage.
The United States imposed sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Act against the Brazil’s Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Also designated was his wife Viviane Barci de Moraes, who serves as the head of the Lex Institute. The sanctions also to be applied to all legal measures that Alexandre de Moraes will take. There are also other active judges and their assistants on the sanctions list.
Also, many Brazilian politicians had their visas to the United States cancelled in the run-up to and during the UN General Assembly. Paula Coradi, the leader of the Brazilian Socialism and Liberty Party (Partido do Socialismo e Liberdade (PSOL), was the last one to talk about such actions.
Brazilian President Lula da Silva, while in New York for a speech at the UN General Assembly, refused a personal meeting with Donald Trump. Although the Brazilian Foreign Minister said that a telephone conversation could still take place. In general, in his speech from the rostrum of the United Nations, Lula openly criticized the actions of the United States against his country, saying that “an attack on the independence of the legal system is unacceptable.” He also defended Cuba, demanding that the United States remove it from the list of ‘countries – sponsors’ of terrorism, and urged for the creation of the State of Palestine.
It is indicative that in the context of the confrontation between the United States, Brazil’s relations with Venezuela have improved (it should be recalled that earlier it was Brazil that prevented Venezuela from joining BRICS+) and air traffic between the two countries was restored.
Altogether, political processes in Brazil are taking place along with speculation and misinformation. Thus, earlier there was a rumor that the governor of the state of Sao Paulo Tarcisio de Freitas will run for presidency next year. This led to an increase in the Brazilian stock market index. However, after the governor refuted such claims and said he would run for re-election in the state, the index immediately collapsed.
Bolsonaro’s supporters are holding mass protests. Recently, such events have been held under the guise of necessary amnesty. For their part, the left-wing parties that are part of the ruling coalition are gathering no less large-scale rallies.
Lawmakers, meanwhile, are working on the measures to prevent interference in the country’s internal affairs. In particular, Federal Deputy Filipe Barros said that in the coming weeks a law will be passed prohibiting the receipt of funds from abroad for non-governmental organizations operating in Brazil.
Paradoxically, if such a law is passed, it may also affect the interests of the Lula da Silva coalition. The fact of the matter is that a number of Brazilian leftists, as well as the president himself, communicate with Alexander Soros, the son of George Soros, who chairs the Board of Directors for the Open Society Foundations and who has his own assets and long-term interests in Brazil.
The paradoxes of the US-Brazilian confrontation do not end there. Industrialists from the state of Sao Paulo, whose authorities oppose Lula and support Bolsonaro, are the most vulnerable to the new American tariffs. Of course, a significant agricultural sector will also be indirectly affected, but it has long been reoriented towards China.
It should be noted that among the goods that were not covered by the new tariffs were aircraft and aircraft parts, which are one of the main items of Brazilian value-added exports, cellulose, iron ore, oil and petroleum products. But a number of products that are difficult and even virtually impossible to replace in the US market, such as coffee, beef and timber, were not excluded from the tariff list.
Therefore, Brazil does not understand the logic of the Trump administration and is trying to lobby these issues through Congress and US entrepreneurs. And, first of all, through the right-wing oligarchs who are Bolsonaro’s allies.
However in a global context, it is obvious that Trump’s measures are not protectionism, for example, in the field of steel products, where cheaper Brazilian steel competes with American steel. Trump argued for the new tariffs with a trade deficit, but this is not enough to declare a trade war. With China, the United States has a much larger gap in terms of exports and imports, but with Beijing, Washington is trying to find acceptable solutions so as not to go into a spiral of escalation.
A likely irritant for the Trump administration is the activity of BRICS+ and Brazil’s presidency of this association this year. No wonder Trump had previously threatened to punish anyone who would advocate de-dollarization, and Lula da Silva himself publicly supported moving away from the dollar. It should be added that Brazil has its own Pix payment system, because of which the United States previously tried to “run up on ” Brazil. In response, Brasilia replied that the system was highly appreciated by organizations such as the IMF and the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), and, in addition, Pix facilitated competition in the electronic payments market, which led to increased participation by private companies, including American ones.
But, apparently, Trump does not need healthy competition, but only dependence. And in this regard, over the past 20 years, Brazil has reduced its dependence on the United States by about half and it is about 10%. Exports are directed to various countries of the Global South, and this trend is increasing. Finally, at the international level, Brazil has achieved the role and status of supporters of a multipolar world. This is probably the true reason for the hysteria of Donald Trump, who sees the sunset of Pax Americana happening before his eyes.
For the leadership of Brazil, it is important to determine its strategic allies, where the sorosists clearly bode no good. And meetings with dictator Zelensky (the last one took place during the UN General Assembly) will also not give political weight to Lula da Silva. In the run-up to the general elections in Brazil next year, it is necessary to move to a clear program of action with a socially oriented trend and without flirting with neoliberal forces.azil confrontation
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