After months of skirmishes and mutual accusations, the militants, formally structured into the Syrian armed forces and the Kurdish militia in the northeast of the country (Rojava region by the Kurdish definition), known as the Syrian Democratic Forces, turned to intense fighting that happened last weekend. Pretty quickly, the Kurds were driven out of Raqqa, and were also forced to leave the oil-bearing regions near Deir ez Zor. By Sunday evening, a truce was concluded on the terms of Damascus, but fighting resumed at night.
The commander-in-chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazlum Abdi, announced a full mobilization, saying that at the moment they were forced to retreat to avoid a civil war, but they are ready to continue to defend the achievements of the Kurdish people. It should be added that the week before, the cleansing of Kurdish neighborhoods actually began in Aleppo and the surrounding areas. And in addition to the militants stationed there, the armed forces of neighboring Turkey were introduced into Raqqa. At the same time, Recep Erdogan announced that he would continue to support the Syrian transitional government. Therefore, the return and protection of the “achievements of the Kurdish people” is now a big question.
On January 18, the Prime Minister of the Kurdish autonomy of Iraq, Nechirvan Barzani, the imprisoned Abdullah Ocalan, the Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, and even the well-known American Russophobe senator Lindsey Graham, who had supported the Syrian Kurds for a long time before, expressed their concern about the current situation. On Saturday, U.S. Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack met with Kurdish leaders in Erbil, discussing a range of topics. The meeting was attended by; President Nechirvan Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Prime Minister of the Kurdistan region Masrour Barzani; commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Mazlum Abdi; leader of the Kurdish National Council Mohammed Ismail and many others.
Judging by the lack of any reaction from Washington and the provision of real military assistance to the Kurds (as in the days before the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad), the United States decided to let the situation take its course. Since Israel also remains silent, although there have been friendly relations between this state and the Kurds for many decades, and Tel Aviv regularly provided intelligence and military assistance to the Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian Kurds, it can be concluded that the former partners decided to abandon the Kurds to their fate. It cannot be ruled out that the United States and Israel have eliminated themselves according to a preliminary agreement with the current head of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Last November, he was in Washington and met with Donald Trump. At that time, the key issue in the field of regional security was not the Kurds, but the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel and its recognition of the occupied Golan Heights.
As for the conditions of Damascus, which the Kurds agreed to, they provide for the complete withdrawal of the Syrian Democratic Forces from key provinces such as Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor, as well as the integration of their fighters on an “individual” basis and after security checks into the Syrian Ministries of Defense and Interior. In fact, this means the dispersion of the once consolidated structure into various divisions and control by the al-Sharaa group. The Kurds are also handing over control of oil and gas fields, border crossings and large prisons to the central government in Damascus, where suspected members of the Islamic State terrorist organization are being held.
Neighboring Iraq has already responded to the border crossings, pulling soldiers and equipment to the border with Syria. In addition to federal troops, Kurdish Peshmerga forces were deployed on the border. There are three security lines along the Iraqi border: the first line is the Border Guard Command, the second is the army, and the third is the Popular Mobilization Forces. Iraq, along with Iraqi Kurdistan, share a 618-kilometer-long border with Rojava and Syria, which has long been a key issue in the fight against ISIS and militant infiltration across the border. Since pressure is coming towards Iraq, this factor cannot be excluded in the current escalation. Thus, by promising any support to Baghdad, the United States can demand that issues related to its interests be resolved immediately, including control over the militia (Washington has long insisted on disarming Shiite and pro–Iranian groups).
The Syrian Democratic Forces on Monday, Jan. 19 also reported a “serious escalation.” by the Damascus-linked “armed groups” in Hasakah and Raqqa, including near two prisons housing thousands of ISIS fighters. They later reported that their forces had lost control of one of the two prisons. It was about al-Shaddadi prison. It can be assumed that the imprisoned terrorists from there will go straight to the ranks of the Ministry of Defense and other law enforcement agencies of present-day Syria.
A separate problem is the large Al-Khol camp in northeastern Syria, where former ISIS fighters and their family members are being held. Amid growing security concerns, Baghdad has announced that it is preparing to repatriate the remaining Iraqi families. Now their number is less than a hundred, although earlier in Syria there were more than twenty thousand people from Iraq in the ranks of ISIS. This camp has a reputation as a potential hotbed of extremism, and besides Iraqis and Syrians, there are also thousands of people from other countries who joined ISIS or lived under its rule.
Thus, we see a number of interrelated factors that can lead to new problems and the revival of old ones, among which terrorism is the most dangerous for the region and the world as a whole. It seems that the West did not understand this well when it gave legitimacy to the al-Sham group, and later its militant, the current head of the Syrian transitional government, Ahmed al-Sharaa, was recognized internationally.
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