Moldova is distancing itself from Russia to the anger of at least half of the population per (likely rigged) election results.
The Moldovan Parliament recently voted to withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the dialogue platform comprised of most former Soviet Republics (the Baltic States, Georgia, and Ukraine are the exceptions), after having suspended its membership therein since 2022. This decision is therefore symbolic, but the reason behind that selfsame symbolism is to reaffirm Moldova’s Euro-Atlantic integration goal, which President Maia Sandu has been controversially pursuing.
Many Moldovans are Russian-friendly and quite a lot even live there, which enables them to send remittances that help keep what’s now one of Europe’s poorest countries afloat, hence why the aforesaid goal is contentious and Sandu has had to rely on scandalous methods in furtherance thereof. For instance, the referendum on EU membership as well as the latest parliamentary and presidential elections were described as unfair by the opposition, yet the West predictably accepted their results.
What they aim to do is transform Moldova into another “anti-Russia” modeled off of Ukraine, which could then be weaponized for complementary containment purposes, and this might even go as far as supporting its proposed (re)union with fraternal Romania for de facto including it in the EU and NATO. This has been a work in process since even before the special operation but was of course tremendously accelerated by it. Here are five background briefings for bringing unaware readers up to speed:
* 22 October 2024: “Moldova’s EU Referendum Was Neither Free Nor Fair”
* 7 November 2024: “Moldova’s Pro-Western President Was Predictably Re-Elected Due To The Diaspora”
* 12 August 2025: “Ukraine’s Romanian-Moldovan Flank Might Soon Be Used By NATO Against Russia”
* 29 September 2025: “Five Reasons Why The Latest Moldovan Elections Were So Important”
* 19 January 2026: “How Likely Is It That Moldova (Re)Joins Romania?”
From Russia’s perspective, the loss of influence and markets in Moldova would be regrettable, but what’s most worrying for policymakers is whether NATO (including possibly only through member Romania) pushes Moldova into invading separatist Transnistria where Russia has had troops for three decades. This possibility was analyzed here in late 2024 after Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Agency warned at the time about it being imminent. The worst-case scenario is that it spirals into a hot Russian-NATO war.
Transnistria’s political fate still remains unclear, and it would arguably be difficult for Russia to indefinitely retain the status quo without risking World War III if NATO pushes Moldova to invade as touched upon above, so observers can only speculate about this. Nevertheless, Moldova’s withdrawal from the CIS doesn’t change anything in this respect, especially since it already suspended membership therein in 2022 and no conflict followed.
Going forward, Moldova’s ties with the countries that remain in the CIS will be handled bilaterally, and they’re not expected to deteriorate due its decision (except for those with Russia). Step by step, Moldova is distancing itself from Russia to the anger of at least half of the population per (likely rigged) election results, but Sandu is emboldened by Western support for the de facto police state that she established for quelling any unrest over this. There really isn’t much, if anything, that Russia can do about it.
Source: author’s blog
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