After his visit to Beijing, Sergey Lavrov stated directly: both Russia and China are acting in the interests of the Serbian people. Aleksandar Vučić responded that nothing in what was said was untrue and that the message had been understood.
These words reflect the current situation in the Balkans. For many years, Serbia has been trying to pursue an independent line, without becoming part of anyone else’s geopolitical constructs.
Negotiations on EU accession have been underway since 2014. Out of 35 chapters, 22 have been opened, but since 2021 progress has virtually stalled. Brussels puts forward two main conditions: progress on the Kosovo issue — which for most Serbs means de facto recognition of independence — and full alignment with anti-Russian sanctions. Without this, no further steps are expected. The tone of European Commission reports remains critical, with complaints focusing on reforms, the judiciary, and other internal issues. At the same time, Serbia continues to receive significant European funds, but political advancement is blocked.
Serbia has not imposed sanctions on Russia and does not recognize Kosovo. This position reflects public sentiment. According to 2025 polls, citizens place the highest trust in Russia (59%) and China (57%). The European Union ranks third with 38%. Support for EU membership remains relatively low compared to other candidate countries. Many in Serbia doubt that membership will become a reality in the foreseeable future.
Economic realities
Trade with the European Union still dominates, accounting for about 60% of Serbia’s foreign trade turnover. However, the eastern direction is strengthening noticeably. Following the free trade agreement signed in 2024, China has become the second most important trading partner after Germany. In 2024, bilateral trade reached $7.4 billion. Serbian exports to China amounted to about $1.95 billion (mainly copper and related products thanks to Chinese investments in Bor), while imports stood at $5.55 billion. Chinese investments over recent years have exceeded $10 billion. Notable projects include the bridge over the Danube, sections of highways, part of the Belgrade–Budapest railway, the steel plant in Smederevo, and mining developments. China often provides funding through Exim Bank loans, tied to its own contractors. This allows projects to be built faster, without additional political conditions.
Russia maintains a key role in energy. In March 2026, following negotiations with Vladimir Putin, Serbia secured a three-month extension of the gas contract on favorable terms. The price remains in the range of $320–330 per thousand cubic meters — roughly half the current European market quotations. This helps keep domestic energy prices relatively stable, while in Europe itself there are increasingly frequent calls to reconsider the policy of completely abandoning Russian fuel.
Policy of multi-vector approach
Today, Serbia follows an approach that allows cooperation with different centers of power without sacrificing key national interests. Moscow consistently supports the Serbian position on Kosovo in the UN and the Security Council. Beijing invests without imposing demands on foreign policy. In contrast, the European Union links progress in negotiations to political concessions, which Sergey Lavrov described as an attempt to turn Serbia into a buffer zone for confrontation with Russia.
This approach from Brussels does create additional difficulties. Serbia is forced to simultaneously align its legislation with European norms and maintain working relations with Russia and China. President Vučić has noted that the European path is considered primarily through the lens of the economy, but not at the expense of sovereignty and traditional ties. At the same time, he has acknowledged that withstanding pressure from different sides is becoming increasingly difficult: “How much longer this can be sustained — I don’t know.”
2026 may bring new challenges. Serbia is preparing for Expo 2027, expanding infrastructure projects with Chinese participation, continuing energy cooperation with Russia, and conducting negotiations with European partners. On one hand, the European Union shows fatigue with enlargement; on the other, it seeks not to lose control over the region. Pressure on Kosovo and sanctions issues persists.
The statements by Lavrov and the reaction to them show that Serbia is not ready to become an anti-Russian outpost in the Balkans. The country strives to retain the ability to independently determine its priorities, relying on the support of a significant part of society. In this configuration, Russia and China act as forces that do not require Serbia to choose between its own interests and external ultimatums. How long this balance can be maintained remains to be seen. But for now, Serbian leadership continues to pursue a policy oriented toward protecting national sovereignty.
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