Open Dialogue Research Journal
This suggests that Russia expects a political settlement or at least an armistice within the next six months so it’s now prioritizing the further legitimization of its control over the new regions by finally completing their legal integration into the country at the local administrative level by 10 September. Putin […]
Russia isn’t a signatory nor does it plan to invade any of those four countries. The Baltic States’ and Poland’s Defense Ministers issued a joint statement on Tuesday announcing that their countries are withdrawing from the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention (Ottawa Convention) in response to what they portrayed as new threats from […]
Russian and Chinese interests don’t align on this particular issue and the dynamics associated with it. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that “Russia Is Wooing Arctic Gas Buyers With Life After US Sanctions”. They cited unnamed sources to report that Novatek, the company behind the Arctic LNG 2 megaproject, is courting […]
Trump might recognize Crimea as Russian not because he might think that it’s the right thing to do, but as a clever tactic for encouraging Russia to pragmatically compromise with Kiev, though it would still be a political, economic, and military game-changer for the reasons explained in this analysis. Semafor cited […]
The last thing that Trump wants is for the US to be drawn back into another war with Russia after “Pivoting (back) to Asia”, let alone a direct one instead of the proxy war that they’ve recently resolved to end, but the chances of this happening would spike if Poland […]
Russia would remove what the interim Syrian authorities consider to be a “problem” from their hands, it could more quickly settle its new regions, and their ongoing base talks would no longer be overshadowed by these atrocities. The latest sectarian violence in Syria killed almost 1,000 members of the Alawite minority at […]
Trump 2.0 must become aware of the threat that the UK poses to its plans and respond accordingly to defend the US’ interests. Russia’s Foreign Spy Service (SVR) accused the UK of trying to sabotage the nascent Russian–US “New Détente” for self-interested geopolitical reasons. According to their sources, the success of their talks could break the […]
There are five compelling arguments for either scenario. Ukraine just agreed to a month-long ceasefire after talks with the US in Jeddah, but it’s conditional on Russia agreeing to the same, which remains uncertain. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to pay his second trip to Moscow in just as many months later this […]
The most likely scenario is that the Kristallnacht-like massacre of Alawites goes unpunished and the rebellion by some of the victims’ co-religionists is decisively defeated. Syria was rocked by sectarian violence in recent days after the interim authorities and their foreign allies massacred members of the Alawite minority en masse in response […]
The estimated €800 billion in defense spending that’s supposed to follow in the next four years might sound impressive, but it becomes much less so when considering the difficulties in optimizing this. The EU swiftly responded to Trump’s decision to freeze all military aid to Ukraine by having European Commission President Ursula […]
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