Open Dialogue Research Journal
The latest socio-political and security developments suggest that it relishes being a frontline state. Estonia catapulted back into international news after it recently seized an alleged vessel from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”, to which Russia had a restrained reaction for the pragmatic reasons explained here, but it’s also been stirring up […]
Vucic’s trip should be seen less as defying the EU and more as furthering his self-interests. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic confirmed that he’ll defy the EU by traveling to Moscow for Victory Day after the bloc warned officials from candidate countries like his not to participate in that event. This is a […]
US control over the trans-Ukrainian and Nord Stream pipelines could incentivize the EU into concessions on their trade war while whatever seized Russian assets that the US obtains legal ownership of from Moscow could serve to justify ramping up pressure on the bloc in this context. Reuters reported earlier in the […]
The US might pressure him to assemble a government of national unity on pain of once again suspending military and intelligence aid if he refuses to dilute his power in lieu of holding elections. Ukraine extended martial law until 6 August following Zelensky’s request earlier this week, which will prevent elections from being held […]
Russia wants to avoid falling into the UK’s trap for sabotaging its rapprochement with the US by credibly threatening military force against Estonia in response to this provocation, but Putin’s patience might run out if the US is unable or unwilling to prevent its partners from staging repeat incidents. Estonia seized one […]
The “deconfliction mechanism” that they’re reportedly discussing would likely be insufficient for resolving their security dilemma and might thus only delay what could be an inevitable clash. Israel and Turkiye held talks in Azerbaijan last week on the creation of a so-called “deconfliction mechanism” for preventing an accidental conflict between […]
Miroshnik and Zakharova said different things last week about these peacekeepers’ real purpose and their degree of coordination with Kiev in the unlikely scenario of them being deployed to Ukraine. Astute observers might have been confused after two seemingly contradictory claims by Russian diplomats last week about the scenario of […]
Interoperability issues could make the US think twice about intervening in the EU’s support against Russia. “Trump Is Unlikely To Pull All US Troops Out Of Central Europe Or Abandon NATO’s Article 5”, but he’s definitely “Pivoting (back) to Asia” in order to more muscularly contain China, which will have […]
Creative economic diplomacy was the key to getting their increasingly stalled talks back on track. Russian Special Presidential Envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who’s also the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, paid a visit to DC last week to continue negotiations with the US over bilateral ties and Ukraine. His […]
The odds of everything perfectly unfolding – the UNSC agreeing to have the UN assume control only over “rump Ukraine” and without Kiev’s consent (thus amounting to tacit recognition of Russia’s claims), the UN speedily assembling the large-scale resources required, and then successfully neutralizing all armed Ukrainian resistance – are […]
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