The two recent administrations of the United States, led by Donald Trump and Joe Biden, have taken contrasting approaches to relations with Latin America. Issues such as illegal migration, the battle against the fentanyl supply, trade, and economic initiatives have dominated the foreign policy agenda in Washington.
At the same time, President Biden has revised some of his predecessor’s policies, indicating a lack of continuity in the Latin American direction. The “new-old” president, who has returned to the Oval Office, continues to make significant statements that, on the one hand, generate a lot of attention due to their sharpness and scope, but on the other hand, provide insight into specific areas of future action in the region. Leaving aside the issues of world politics that affect players such as the EU, China, and Russia, we should turn to Washington’s possible priorities regarding neighboring countries in the Western Hemisphere, as they will be the first to feel the impact of certain plans by D. Trump.
People in Latin American countries have responded differently to the actions and words of the 45th president of the United States, and it appears that these differences will continue. Opinion polls conducted by Latinobarometer show that Trump’s first term has not been well-received in the region.
The decline in trust in the actions of the US government in the region is also evident in surveys conducted by Vanderbilt University as part of the Latin American Public Opinion Project. During the first term of President Trump, indicators reached their lowest values in the past 11 years, according to the survey results. Against this backdrop, the victory of Joseph Biden in the 2020 elections was greeted with enthusiasm, as the region expected a more supportive and productive approach from Washington, particularly an equitable approach to addressing issues such as migration and drug trafficking. However, research conducted in 2023 shows that expectations were not fully met, leading to an increase in the percentage of people in Latin American countries who do not trust the actions of their northern neighbor.
A significant part of the world’s media has also portrayed a rather gloomy and negative image of the current US president for Latin Americans during the period 2016-2020 in their materials. However, there has been a downside to this. Right-wing conservative political figures, most notably the presidents of Argentina and Brazil, have treated the 45th president of the United States with special favor and sympathy. This trend of a right-leaning turn in the region, which emerged in 2015-2016, has not lasted long, and by the end of Trump’s presidency, it has become clear that a potential left-leaning shift is not on the horizon. Recent elections in Latin America have shown that societies in these countries have become as polarized as ever, with the gap between winners and losers often being minimal and sometimes measured in tenths of a percent.
The 2024 election in the United States showed that Donald Trump’s image and reaction to his statements differed slightly from previous experiences. In Latin America, his rhetoric was criticized by the left-leaning forces, while right-wing conservatives were the most enthusiastic. The head of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, was one of the first world leaders to congratulate the newly elected 47th president. Argentine liberal Javier Milei canceled his attendance at the Ibero-American Summit in Ecuador and went instead to Mar-a-Lago to personally celebrate with his North American counterpart. He emphasized the importance of strategic cooperation between Buenos Aires and Washington, even suggesting the possibility of a free trade agreement. Brazilian Ex-President Jair Bolsonaro warmly welcomed his “colleague’s” victory and his son, Eduardo, was by his side on the day of his victory’s announcement.
Forces opposed to left-wing governments in most countries in the region warmly welcomed the election of a new US leader. More restrained and routine congratulations were sent by the leaders of Bolivia, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Chile, and Uruguay. While recognizing President Trump’s victory, the leaders of Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico did not remain silent about certain differences with the new US administration. For instance, Gustavo Petro criticized the Republicans for rejecting climate change, Lula da Silva expressed hope that relations between their countries would not worsen, and Claudia Sheinbaum urged her North American counterpart to engage in dialogue and respect sovereignty. The leaders of Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua offered their congratulations to the people of the United States for the successful election.
to be continued
Comments