For more than two centuries since the Monroe Doctrine, the United States has considered Latin America its backyard and, under various pretexts intervened in the affairs of the countries of the region and conducted military interventions. These consequences are still being felt today, from the actions of Washington-oriented puppet governments to the existence of such neocolonial entities as Free Associated Territory of Puerto Rico.
Since Donald Trump’s administration has already voiced a number of threats and loud statements against Latin American countries, it is necessary to analyze what real actions can the United States take and against whom harsh measures can be taken? Although, of course, it must be borne in mind that Trump, using the rhetoric of preventive diplomacy, may also be bluffing.
Mexico and Panama were the first to come under pressure from the White House. In relation to Mexico, it was not only the so-called “linguistic imperialism” (referring to Donald Trump’s decree renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America), but also a warning about the use of military force in the event of an invasion by illegal migrants or the actions of drug cartels. Several thousand additional U.S. Special Forces soldiers were deployed to the Southern border. Mexico was forced to accept the proposals of the United States and since February has officially hosted special forces, which are supposed to help the Mexican military fight organized crime. An American missile carrier entered the waters of the Gulf on March 18.
Panama, despite the outrage of the country’s leadership over the possible annexation of the canal, also actually fulfilled the US demands to reduce the Chinese presence by starting the process of a deal for the BlackRock consortium to purchase the assets of Hong Kong-based C. K. Hutchison, which include several ports in Panama itself, but also in Europe.
Further, the remaining countries of Central and South America can be divided into three conditional groups. The first represents opponents and critics of US hegemony. The second group consists of States that adhere to a balance. The third is countries that are now actively cooperating with the United States, so they have nothing to worry about. On the contrary, they can still reap certain dividends, like El Salvador, where Nayib Bukele is already accepting prisoners from the United States for placement in prisons for a fee (officially, these are members of the Venezuelan group Tren de Aragua (TdA), in addition, El Salvador has officially requested the extradition of the leaders of the local MS-13 gang).
The first group undoubtedly includes the ALBA bloc countries, which are Russia’s strategic partners – Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Bolivia. In relation to the first two, the United States is likely to continue its sanctions policy. At the same time, new threats from the White House were made about any cooperation with Cuba in the field of medicine, which is nonsense – this field of activity has never been sanctioned for humanitarian reasons. This caused outrage in a number of countries in the region.
Venezuela is a special case because, in addition to sanctions, there is a real threat of the use of force. Of course, the withdrawal of American oil companies (Trump banned Chevron from operating in Venezuela) will cause additional damage to the Venezuelan economy. And the new migration rules in the United States, which actually criminalize holders of Venezuelan passports, will further worsen relations between the countries. But this is not a reason for military intervention.
A territorial dispute with the Co-operative Republic of Guyana, a third of whose territory, according to the 2023 referendum, belongs to Venezuela, may serve as yet another excuse for the US military intervention.. The leadership of the US Southern Command has previously spoken out about military assistance to Guyana, and taking into account the direct interests of ExxonMobil in this country, lobbying can be involved at different levels. Earlier, Juan Zarate, a member of the National Endowment for Democracy of the United States, pursued a policy of destabilization towards Venezuela. It is known that he is associated with the current Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also opposes the Chavista government of Nicolas Maduro. Given that part of Guyana has become a de facto gray zone, all kinds of provocations can be carried out there.
There are already US bases in Colombia, and Washington has previously used this country for sabotage attacks on neighboring Venezuela. But under President Gustavo Petro, relations with the Maduro government have returned to normal. Moreover, Colombia refused to provide the United States with airspace for its military aircraft. And Trump imposed 25% tariffs on all Colombian goods. Given the difficult situation in a number of regions of the country due to the actions of paramilitary groups, the United States has a formal reason to intervene (again, under the pretext of the fight against drug trafficking), but so far there are no clear signals to justify such an operation.
Ecuador is still marching in lockstep of the United States. But on April 13, presidential elections are due to take place, where banana magnate Daniel Noboa will try to win. In the first round, President and candidate Daniel Noboa gained an advantage in mountainous areas, where, in particular, the capital Quito is located, while opposition leader Luisa Gonzalez won in coastal provinces, where insecurity is a central problem. Since the votes were roughly evenly divided, in the second round there will be a struggle for the voters of Leonidas Iza, who came the third.
After the opening of the Chancay deepwater port in Peru last year, which is linked to Chinese investments, Washington views Peru as an ally of its opponent. This new gateway from South Asia to South America undermines U.S. control of maritime communications.
In Peru, the Government of Dina Boluarte has declared a state of emergency for 30 days in Lima and Callao since March 18. The army and police jointly began patrolling the streets. In this case, the government made this decision after the murder of singer Paul Flores from the Armonia 10 group, who died when several people fired at the Kumbiambera Orchestra bus as it was traveling along Independence Avenue in San Juan de Lurigancho.
It is an internal problem, but as has often happened in history, the United States can use it to its advantage.
Bolivia has cool relations with the United States, but may again attract Washington’s interest due to deposits of lithium, natural gas and other natural resources. Since elections are due to take place there this year, the State Department is likely to try to manage the electoral process. It is technically difficult to conduct an open military intervention in this country, since it is necessary to use the territory of one of the neighbors.
As for Chile, President Gabriel Boric recently called Trump’s words about Zelensky (a dictator without elections) “unacceptable,“ coming to the defense of the Kiev junta. This may seem strange, since Boric had previously followed Washington’s policy. However, his behavior will become clear if we consider the context of the confrontation between liberal globalists led by George Soros, the Rothschilds and other similar characters with conservatives such as Donald Trump himself. Boric, without a doubt, responds to Soros’ policies; he is a pawn of the liberal globalist project.
By the way, Chile Interior Minister from 2022 to 2025 – Carolina Toha – who resigned to run for president in November this year, also represents the interests of globalists and is associated with Soros’ structures and the BlackRock Corporation.
Therefore, Trump may have unpleasant questions about the current Chilean government.
Brazil’s leadership is not in the best position either. Not only has the country effectively ceded the role of leader of the Global South to India at the global level, but Lula da Silva’s policy has not been consistent lately (one can recall the recent blocking of Venezuela’s entry into the BRICS group). In addition, former President Jair Bolsonaro actually launched an election campaign by holding a rally in Rio de Janeiro last weekend, which attracted about half a million people. Bolsonaro is known as a conservative and a good friend of Donald Trump and will definitely receive political support from him. But this is not to say that the situation is critical, since Lula also cooperates with the United States in a variety of areas, including defense and security.
The President of Argentina, Javier Milei, takes a rather pro-American and pro-Tramper position, therefore, he will continue a policy beneficial to Washington.
In the context of the changing US foreign policy, it should also be noted that the evaluation criteria are also being transformed. If at the beginning of the twentieth century the influence of the United States in the region was assessed through the prism of economic interests (the conditional United Fruit Company), then in the second half ideology was in the first place and projects such as the Operation Condor were carried out due to fear of the spread of communism and the emergence of alternative political systems (especially after the Cuban Revolution in 1959). Now it has come to naught, and it seems that Trump is more concerned about economic issues, which is closer to the strategy of the beginning of the last century. Therefore, in their policy, they will consider, first of all, the presence of China and the direct threat posed by the Mexican border.
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