Talks In Istanbul Unlikely To Produce Results

Ukraine stalled the start of negotiations. Russia sent a low level delegation.

Secretary of State and Interim National Security Adviser Marco Rubio says he expects no breakthroughs in the Istanbul talks between Ukraine and Russia. The Russians, Rubio said, sent a “low level” delegation: apparently the Ukrainians are sending their defense minister, but at this hour (1507 EDT in Washington, 2107 Istanbul time) no meeting took place .

For the past few weeks the Ukrainians first insisted there could be no talks until Russia first agreed to a 30 day ceasefire. Then, in a reversal, Zelensky traveled to Ankara, not Istanbul, to discuss with Turkish President Erdogan next steps. He no doubt leveraged his discussion in Ankara with the backing of his European colleagues, especially the French, British and Germans whose leaders met with him in Kiev just before he traveled to Turkey.

The Russians want to restart the 2022 Istanbul negotiations which Ukraine backed out of after a preliminary agreement was reached. It isn’t at all clear that it is actually possible since the Russians have since annexed five areas of Ukraine.

Meanwhile President Trump himself thinks that the only way a deal is possible would be for him and Putin to hammer one out, but Trump is not ready yet to make a move, nor is Putin.

Even if Trump and Putin could find a modus vivendi, it is uncertain that the top NATO allies of the United States would accept it. Probably that is behind Trump’s reluctance to make any move right now.

A deal that would normalize Russia, US and NATO ties is very important. To begin with, a Ukraine deal would mark the end of NATO’s expansion and consequent perceived threat to Russia, something Russia seeks. However, for it to stick, obviously all the parties that have supported Ukraine, or at least most of them, have to sign on.

There is clearly a split in Europe over a Ukraine settlement. At the moment the Germans, British and French, who are the main NATO and EU powers, would oppose a deal. Even more importantly, the EU officially is opposed, and it seems unlikely the EU can be persuaded to change its view. There are some indications that Macron is facing opposition at home over support for Ukraine, especially the prospect of sending French land or air forces to fight in Ukraine, which the opposition in France fears. Macron bemoans the fact that its arsenal for Ukraine is exhausted, and he does not plan any more arms transfers at present. He also says he thinks Ukraine has to prepare itself for territorial concessions. However, at the same time Macron says he favors more heavier sanctions on Russia if the Russians don’t agree to a ceasefire.

Meanwhile the US said that part of any deal would be a revival of the NATO-Russia Council, which disintegrated in 2022. Symbolically that could open the door to regularization between NATO and Russia, including measures to reduce tensions, including perhaps various confidence building measures. While so far the Russians have not responded to the idea of renewing the Council, the Russians said, even before the war started, they would like to see security measures in the European area, especially nuclear weapons. One recalls that it was the first Trump administration that cancelled the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, claiming that the Russians were cheating. That probably came as a shock to the Russians, who did not expect a strong US response to claims and counter-claims about treaty violations. The Russians responded by cancelling the INF as well (The INF Treaty allowed a one year opt out for either party.)

In the past few years there have been technological developments that make future arms control very challenging. This includes the rise of stealth systems and, more significantly perhaps, the development of medium and long range, nuclear capable, hypersonic missiles. In addition, while Russia has been willing to engage the US and NATO in arms control deals, China has remained outside and unwilling, while at the same time rapidly fielding new generations of weapons that threaten stability in the Pacific and global security. Initiatives to find remedies to the increasing unbalance in nuclear threats have largely been frozen at best, with NATO expansion and attempts to topple the Russian government at the top of the western agenda. The deep hostility to Russia is a definitive roadblock to stabilizing Europe and promoting an arms control agenda with China.

It is hard to say whether anything will be accomplished in Istanbul, leaving the possibility that Russia may defeat Ukraine’s army on the battlefield. That outcome might temporarily decide the conflict, but in the end it does not lead to any peaceful future.

Source: author’s blog